3种重要的油气资源评价方法及应用对比  

Application and Comparison of Three Petroleum Resource Assessment Methods

作　　者：郭秋麟[1] 闫伟[1] 高日丽[1] 陈晓林[2] 徐京新[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083 [2]中国石油大学(北京),北京102249

出　　处：《中国石油勘探》2014年第1期50-59,共10页China Petroleum Exploration

基　　金：国家科技重大专项"岩性地层区带;圈闭评价与储层预测技术研究"课题部分成果(2011ZX05001);中国石油重大科技专项"中国石油第四次油气资源评价"部分成果(2014E-050201);中国石油勘探开发研究院创新课题"泥页岩;致密砂岩孔隙演化与油气成藏数值模拟"部分成果(2011Y005)

摘　　要："中国石油第四次油气资源评价"和"全球油气资源评价与利用研究"两个中国石油天然气股份有限公司重大专项刚刚启动,要求统一评价方法,实现评价结果与国际接轨。为了项目能够更好地开展,有必要解剖重要的油气资源评价方法,对比它们的应用特点。介绍了简单帕内托分布模型(SP)、左偏右截帕内托分布模型(STP)和对数正态发现过程模型(LDP)的研究进展及各自的特点。提出了有效的关键参数研究方法,即用迭代法确定SP分布模型中的最大油藏、油藏分布形态等关键参数,用最小二乘法求取STP分布模型中的油藏中位数、标准方差和油藏分布形态等关键参数。例举SP分布模型、STP分布模型和LDP模型的应用过程,总结出它们的适用范围,对比它们在预测最大油藏(S)、油藏个数(N)和总资源规模(R)三方面的结果,得出:在勘探程度较高、资料达到模型要求时,STP分布模型预测效果最好;在勘探程度较低、资料较少时,SP分布模型具有优势;LDP模型应用范围较宽,在中高勘探程度地区应用有优势。SP分布模型预测的油藏个数偏多,STP分布模型预测的最大油藏比较合理,LDP模型预测的总资源规模和油藏个数效果较好,预测的最大油藏误差较大。PetroChina has just launched two important projects - ＂4th PetroChina Oil and Gas Resource Assessment＂ and ＂Study of Global Oil and Gas Resource Assessment and Application.＂ It is required to establish a unified assessment method to link the appraisal results to the international convention. To bring the projects smoothly under way, it is necessary to make an analysis of the oil and gas resource assessment methods and compare their application characteristics. This paper makes briefings about the study progress and characteristics of three methods - the simple Pareto model （SP）, the shifted truncated Pareto model （STP） and the lognormal discovery process model （LDP）. The research method for effective key parameters is proposed, namely using iteration to determine the largest oil reservoir and distribution of oil reservoirs in SP distribution model and using least squares to obtain the median number of oil reservoirs, standard variance and distribution of oil reservoir in the STP distribution model. The paper also describes the application process of the three above-mentioned models, summarizing their applicable scope and comparing the results of those methods in predicting the largest oil reservoir （S）, quantity of oil reservoirs （N） and total resources （R）. It is concluded that the prediction results of STD distribution model are good when the exploration degree is high with the data meeting the requirements of the model. The SP distribution model is superior when the exploration degree is low with less data made available. The LDP model has a wide application scope and is superior for the area where the exploration degree is at high and middle levels. The SP model can forecast S and R very well but with an extremely large N; The STP model can forecast S very well, but gives large errors on N and R; The LDP model can forecast N and R very well with a worse estimate of S.

关 键 词：油气藏 资源评价 帕内托分布 左偏右截帕内托分布 发现过程模型 

分 类 号：TE16[石油与天然气工程—油气勘探]