地形重力波拖曳参数化对热带气旋强度和路径预报影响的研究  

Impacts of Orographic Gravity Wave Drag Parameterization on Typhoon Intensity and Path Forecasting

作　　者：钟水新[1,2,3] 陈子通[1,2] 戴光丰[1,2] 徐道生[1,2] 黄燕燕[1,2] 张诚忠[1,2] 蒙伟光[1,2] 杨兆礼[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]区域数值天气预报重点实验室,广州510080 [2]中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所,广州510080 [3]中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《大气科学》2014年第2期273-284,共12页Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY201206010;GYHY201006016;GYHY201106003;灾害天气国家重点实验室开放基金2012LASW-B03;国家自然科学基金41075040;41275053;广东省气象局重点项目2013A04

摘　　要：本文在GRAPES_TMM(Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System for Tropical Mesoscale Model)——中国南海台风模式版(面向南海和东南亚)中发展和引进了KA95(Kim and Arakawa,1995)地形重力波拖曳参数化方案(GWDO),并对2012年主要的9个登陆台风进行了试验对比研究,考察了不同标准Richardson数(c Ri)的GWDO试验对台风路径和强度预报的影响。结果表明,在引入地形重力波拖曳参数化过程后,模式对台风登陆时路径和强度的预报能力均要有提高,对台风预报时长越长,GWDO的影响也更为显著。对双台风"SAOLA"和"DAMREY"试验结果表明,GWDO对台风外围距台风中心150 km的对流层中下层风速减弱较为明显,减弱了GRAPES区域模式对台风强度预报偏强的现象,对台风强度长时间预报改善更为明显。不同标准c Ri对重力波拖曳力的计算较为敏感,当c Ri取1.0时,动能迅速的在低层被频散,能量无法有效地上传;c Ri取0.25时,大部分的能量在中高层被频散。总的来说,c Ri取0.75时对台风路径和强度预报改进更为显著,其结果可为业务预报提供指导意义。The scheme of gravity wave drag from sub-grid scale orography （GWDO） is implemented into typhoon models for the South China Sea and southeastern Asia based on the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System for the Tropical Mesoscale Model （GRAPES-TMM）. Its performance is evaluated against non-GWDOparameterization of nine typhoons that made landfall in 2012 in addition to the sensitivity of various criteria of the Richardson number （Rio） for typhoon path and intensity forecasting. The results reveal that the KA95 scheme improves the overall performance of GRAPES for typhoon forecasting when the GWDO parameterization is implemented, particularly with longer forecasts. Double typhoons Damrey and Saola are used as case studies to show that GWDO parameterization is highly effective for forecasting typhoons in the middle and lower troposphere. Moreover, the calculation of gravity wave drag indicates that significant and negligible low-level wave drag is predicted with large and small Richardson numbers （Ric =1.0, Ric =0.25）, respectively. By defining a moderate Richardson number （Rio =0.75）, improvements in predicting the paths and intensities of typhoons are achieved.

关 键 词：KA95方案 地形重力波拖曳 GRAPES模式 台风 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]