中国经济增长对国际能源消费和碳排放的动态影响——基于33个国家GVAR模型的实证研究  

Dynamic Impacts of Chinese Economic Growth on International Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions——Empirical Analysis Based on the GVAR Model of 33 Countries

作　　者：张红[1] 李洋[1] 张洋[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学建设管理系

出　　处：《清华大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2014年第1期14-25,159,共12页Journal of Tsinghua University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71373143)

摘　　要：在全球经济一体化背景下,中国经济的快速增长不仅对本国能源和环境产生直接作用,还对贸易伙伴国的能源消费和碳排放造成间接影响。研究中国经济增长对国际能源消费和碳排放的影响,将有助于从全球维度上理解经济增长、能源消费和碳排放之间的互动关系,并准确界定中国在节能减排中所应当承担的责任和义务。基于33个国家GVAR模型的实证研究发现,在中国经济增长冲击下,全球能源消费和碳排放小幅上升,并在2年后达到最大,但长期趋近于0;美国、欧元区和日本的能源消费和碳排放均表现为正向响应,而印度的能源消费和碳排放分别显示上升和下降,体现出两者在外部冲击下具有异质响应特征。与中国相比,美国经济增长冲击将大幅提高全球能源消费和碳排放,其影响程度大约为中国的6倍,可见美国在碳排放与能源消费的国际传导渠道中占据了主导地位。In the context of the global economic integration,the rapid economic growth in China not only has direct impacts on domestic energy consumption and carbon emissions,but also imposes indirect effects on global energy and environment through the channel of international trades. The impact analysis of Chinese economic growth on global energy consumption and carbon emissions facilitates the in-depth understandings of the relationships among economy,energy and emissions,as well as the identification of the role and responsibility of China for the energy saving and emission reductions. The empirical studies based on 33-country GVAR model reveals that,under the shock from the economic growth in China,global energy consumption and carbon emissions increase slightly,and reach the peak in the 2nd year; but the long effect approaches zero; the energy consumption and carbon emissions in the U. S. A., Euro area and Japan present positive responses,but India has opposite responses in energy consumption and carbon emissions,as the evidence of their idiosyncratic characteristics under the foreign shock. By contrast,the economic growth in the U. S. A. leads to a substantial increase of the global energy consumption and carbon emissions,and the impacts are 6 times that of China,demonstrating its leading role in the International transmission channel of carbon emissions and energy consumption.

关 键 词：经济增长 能源消费 碳排放 全球向量自回归模型 实证研究 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F416.2F205F224