个税免征额、行为效应与工资收入不平等  

Tax Exemption,Behavioral Effect and Wage Inequality

作　　者：陈敏[1] 郭继强[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《财贸经济》2014年第3期34-48,共15页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大招标项目"收入分配制度改革的总体框架与具体路径研究"(编号:11&ZD013);国家社科基金重点项目"‘十二五'时期调整国民收入分配结构研究"(编号:10AZD003);国家自然科学基金面上项目"经济发展方式转变背景下我国就业政策的实施效果评估及实施机制优化研究"(编号:71173186)的资助

摘　　要：国内关于免征额对收入不平等的研究并未充分考虑个体对政策的反馈作用，这很可能导致政策评估结果的偏差和失真。有鉴于此，本文先使用Heckman三阶段估计法和DID方法分析了免征额提高对个体劳动行为的影响，发现其会促进个体劳动供给时间较明显的增加且女性比男性有更大的增幅，这会改变税前的工资分布。在此基础上，本文还构建了带有行为效应的shapley分解，在统一框架下分析了免征额提高对工资不平等的直接分配效应和间接行为效应。结果表明行为效应不容忽视，其解释了工资收入不平等变化的13％～50％并加剧了不平等，如果不考虑行为效应将低估免征额对不平等的真实影响。另外，免征额的设置要与整体收入分布相协调，如果设置过高，直接分配效应也会加剧工资不平等。Most research of the impact of tax exemption on wage inequality in China doesn＇t include the feedback of individuals, which is likely to lead to bias and distortion of policy assessment. So firstly, by using Heckrnan Three Steps and DID（difference in differences） methods, we verify that the raise of tax exemption increases the labor supply time of individuals and the increasing range of woman＇s labor supply time is larger than that of man. Then, we build the Shapley decomposition with behavioral responses to analyze the direct distribution effect and the indirect behavioral effect of the impact of tax exemption change on wage inequality. The results show that behavioral effect is significant, which explains 13~50 percent of the inequality change and exacerbates the wage inequality. The real impact of exemption on inequality will be underestimated without considering the behavioral effect. Further more, tax exemption amount should be set to match income distribution, and the direct effect may exacerbate the wage inequality distribution with higher tax exemption amount.

关 键 词：免征额 劳动供给行为 收入不平等 Heckman三阶段估计法 shapley分解 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学] F249.24