地震预测预报经验的积累——谈《中国震例》的实际应用  

Knowledge Accumulation for Earthquake Prediction ——Application of 《Earthquake Examples of China》

作　　者：王泽皋[1] 王勤彩 王银芝 乔子云[1] 郭妍[1] 张跃刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北省地震局,河北石家庄050021 [2]中国科技大学地球与空间科学系,安徽合肥230022 [3]河北邯郸传输台网,河北邯郸056003

出　　处：《山西地震》2001年第1期9-16,22,共9页Earthquake Research in Shanxi

摘　　要：根据《中国震例》所载 196 6年至 1985年以来 ,全国 Ms≥ 5 .0的 5 8次中强地震的《震例》研究成果 ,从应用的角度出发 ,探讨了动态跟踪预测未来中强地震活动“时”、“空”、“强”的活动规律 ,得出如下启示 :1)利用地震的前兆总体演变过程的阶段性以探讨定量预测其“活动时段”;2 )利用地震的前兆总体分布图象以探讨定量预测其“活动空间”;3)利用地震的前兆环的规模以粗略地预估其未来强震的“活动强度”。还初步探讨了利用它们的“场”、“源”演变的关联性 。Based on the research for 58 medium and strong earthquakes of Ms≥5.0,listed in 《Earthquake Examples of China》, the regularity to predict dynamically “time”,“space” and “size” of the future medium and strong earthquake is discussed and some methods are proposed:1) to predict the “time interval of seismic activity” quantitatively, based on the phasic change of total precursor evolution .2) to predict the “spatial range of seismic activity” quantitatively, based on the spatial distribution of total precursors . 3)to evaluate roughly the “size of earthquake which possibly occurred in future”, based on the range of precursors. Furthermore, the correlation between the evolutions of “field” and “source” is discussed and the physical explanation for the methods above is given.

关 键 词：地震预报 地震活动特征 地震活动图像 地震前兆 活动空间 活动强度 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]