渤中拗陷南支断裂分段研究及地震预测  

Segmental study of the southern branch fault of the Bozhong depression and earthquake forecast

作　　者：闻久成[1] 李军凯[2] 

机构地区：[1]东北电力设计院,吉林长春130022 [2]长春科技大学工程技术学院,吉林长春130022

出　　处：《中国区域地质》2001年第1期107-112,共6页Regional Geology of China

摘　　要：渤中拗陷是渤海—京津唐地区的近代强烈沉降中心之一，拗陷南支断裂带上更是强震频发。根据特征地震和区域构造应力场模拟计算结果对渤中拗陷南支断裂进行分段研究，并对各段的最大潜在地震进行讨论。提出渤海湾1段为最危险段，可能在21世纪中期发生7.5级左右的强震。：The Bozhong depression is one of the recent strong subsidence centers in the Bohai Sea－Beijing－Tianjin－Tangshan region.Violent earthquakes have occurred repeatedly along the south branch fault zone of the depression.On the basis of the characteristic earthquakes and model calculation of the regional tectonic stress field， segment-by-segment study of the south branch fault of the Bozhong depression was conducted and the most potential earthquake of each segment is discussed.The authors consider that the first segment of the Bohai Bay is the most dangerous segment and that a strong earthquake of magnitude 7．5 might take place in the middle of the 21st century．

关 键 词：渤中拗陷 特征地震 有限元方法 构造应力场 地震预测 

分 类 号：P315.2[天文地球—地震学] P315.5[天文地球—固体地球物理学]