地震活动期、幕最大地震M_1的估计及中-长期地震趋势预测  

Estimate of maximum earthquake magnitude M 1 for a seismic period or episode and medium long term earthquake trend prediction

作　　者：张立人[1] 陈正位[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局分析预报中心,北京100036

出　　处：《地震》2001年第1期53-58,共6页Earthquake

基　　金：中国地震局"九五"科研攻关项目!( 96-91 3-0 7-0 5)成果之一

摘　　要：提出一种地震活动期、幕最大地震 M1的估计方法 :利用中低震级累计频度 ∑N与震级近似的直线关系得到间隔地震频度 N与震级的线性关系。用间隔频度 N与震级的线性关系估计最大地震 M1。结果表明 ,以震级 -间隔频度的线性关系估计的 M1比震级 -累计频度关系得到的 M1更接近实际发生的最大地震震级 ,震级 -累计频度关系得到的 M1通常被高估。基于震级 -累计频度关系曲线的特征和震级 -间隔频度的线性关系估计的最大地震 M1,可为中 -长期地震趋势预测提供新的信息。研究表明 ,中国大陆自 1 979年开始的地震幕即将结束 ,而帕米尔东北侧自 1 91This paper proposed one method, which uses the linear relation between the middle low magnitude and cumulative frequency to obtain the linear relation between magnitude and interval frequency. The maximum earthquake magnitude M 1 can be calculated by using the linear relation between magnitude and interval frequency. The calculation results show that: by using the linear relation between magnitude and interval frequency, the estimated maximum earthquake magnitude M 1 is closer to the observed maximum earthquake magnitude in one seismic period or episode than that estimated by using the relation between magnitude and cumulative frequency.The later one is often overestimated. The evolutional characteristics of the relation curve between magnitude and cumulative frequency, and the estimated maximum earthquake magnitude M 1 by using the linear relation between magnitude and interval frequency can give the new information in the medium long term earthquake trend prediction for one seismic period or episode. The investigation shows that the seismic episode started from 1979 in China is coming to the end, a seismic ally quiet period is close to the end in the area of the North Eastern side of Pamirs.

关 键 词：地震趋势预测 最大地震震级 震级-累计频度关系 地震期 地震幕 

分 类 号：P315.5[天文地球—地震学] P315.75[天文地球—固体地球物理学]