寂静的前震与地震预测  

Quiescent foreshock and earthquake prediction

作　　者：赵根模[1] 杨港生[1] 陈化然[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津市地震局,天津300201

出　　处：《地震》2001年第1期69-77,共9页Earthquake

摘　　要：寂静地震的研究具有重要的理论与实际意义。统计表明 ,与寂静地震有关的前驱波比前震有更大的普遍性 ,出现的时间主要集中在主震前 7天之内 ,从一部分中等地震到特大地震之前都已观测到前驱波 ,这就说明大的脆性破裂之前 ,较小的缓慢破裂在自然界是存在的而且比较普遍。根据 1 969年渤海地震和 1 976年唐山地震的前驱波记录进行定位试验 ,证明在观测条件具备时 ,概略的定位是可行的 ,而且表明前驱波是来源于大震震源附近的信号。The research on the quiescent foreshock is of great theoretical and practical significance. Through statistical analysis, it is demonstrated that the precursory wave related to the quiescent foreshock is more universal than the foreshocks. The precursory wave occurs seven days earlier than the main shock, and it has ever been observed before not only the moderate but also strong earthquakes, which shows that the mild slow fracture truly exists before large brittle fracture. In nature, it is common. According to the location tests applying the precursory waves before Bohai earthquake in 1969 and Tangshan earthquake in 1976, the approximate location is possible based on good observation data. The precursory wave comes closely to the focus of strong earthquakes. The temporal and spatial features motioned above show that the precursory waves related to quiescent foreshock can be used for earthquake prediction, especially they can provide important precursory information.

关 键 词：前驱波 缓慢破裂 地震预测 寂静地震 短临预报 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]