辽宁岫岩5.4级地震临震预测  

The imminent prediction for Xiuyan earthquake with M S5.4 in Liaoning Province

作　　者：谷光裕[1] 于龙伟[1] 王安东[1] 卢良玉[1] 王玉莹[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省地震局,辽宁沈阳110031

出　　处：《地震》2001年第1期78-84,共7页Earthquake

摘　　要：简要介绍了 1 999年 1 1月 2 9日辽宁岫岩 MS5.4地震成功预报的震前主要预测依据及基本思路。通过对震前辽宁地区地震中短期危险性的分析 ,确定辽南地区是未来主震的危险地区。根据地震活动的区域特性及岫岩偏岭震群活动的规律 ,判定岫岩震群的前震性质。利用地震活动性参数计算结果和震前在震中及邻近地区出现前兆短临异常的统计分析 。In this paper, the basic idea and the main evidence for the successful prediction of Xiuyan earthquake with M S 5.4 on Nov.29, 1999 in Liaoning province are briefly introduced. It is determined that the southern Liaoning province is dangerous area of the coming earthquake, based on the analysis of the seismic risk for the medium and short term of pre earthquake in southern Liaoning province. On the basis of the provincial characteristics of seismicity and the law of the swarm activity at Xiuyan, the foreshocks characteristics of the Xiuyan swarm is determined. Making use of the numerical results of the seismicity parameters and the statistical analysis of the short term and imminent precursor phenomenon in epicenter and its neighboring region, the basic foundation of prediction of three elements prior to the earthquake is further discussed.

关 键 词：临震预报 地震序列 震群 岫岩地震 地震活动 前震 震源机制 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]