预测发震时间的水氡滑动变化率值及其检验  

Prediction method for origin time based on groundwater Rn slip change rate

作　　者：范雪芳[1] 王吉易[2] 

机构地区：[1]山西省地震局,山西太原030002 [2]河北省地震局,河北石家庄050021

出　　处：《地震》2001年第1期85-90,共6页Earthquake

基　　金：中国地震局"九五"科研攻关项目!( 95-0 4 -0 4 -0 1 -0 4 )

摘　　要：介绍了水氡滑动变化率的计算公式 ,滑动变化率的演化与地震时间的统计关系 ,据此给出了水氡滑动变化率值发震时间预测的步骤、判断指标和方法。结合震例 ,对预测效能进行了评价。检验性预测结果表明 ,预测的发震期限为 1～ 1 2个月 ,平均 5.1个月。This paper introduced the computation formula of groundwater radon slip change rate, statistical relation between slip change rate evolution and origin time of earthquake occurrence, on this basis, the step of origin time prediction by using groundwater radon slip change rate value, judgement index and method are given. Combining the earthquake cases, the prediction efficiency is evaluated, result indicates that the predicted origin time range is 1～12 month, the average is 5.1 month. This method may apply to medium and short term earthquake prediction.

关 键 词：水氡 滑动变化率 发震时间 中短期预报 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学] P315.723[天文地球—固体地球物理学]