人民币升值对外商在华直接投资的“三维效应”分析——基于引力模型的实证研究  

RMB appreciation on China's FDI in Three-dimensional Effect Analysis ——Empirical Study Based on the Grarity Model

作　　者：何维达[1] 潘峥嵘[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学东凌经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《兰州学刊》2014年第2期136-140,共5页

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"经济全球化背景下中国产业安全研究"的资助。(项目编号:10zd&029)

摘　　要：文章通过建立引力模型,以1982—2011年的面板数据为基础,从三个不同维度研究了人民币对外商直接投资与GDP之间的动态关系。实证结果表明:从总体效应来看,人民币升值不利于吸收外商直接投资,人民币实际有效汇率每升值1%,外商直接投资减少1.63%;从地区效应来看,人民币升值对不同地区影响的方向和大小是不同的;从行业效应来看,人民币升值也会导致外资的减少。所以保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定,注重优惠政策对不同地区的结构性差异影响是应对人民币汇率变动对外商直接投资所造成不利影响的关键所在。This paper established a gravity model , study the dynamic relationship between FDI and RMB real effective exchange rate and GDP form a different perspective based on years 1982 -2011 panel date. The empirical results show that： The appreciation of the RMB is not conducive to China absorption of foreign direct investment, the real effective exchange rate for every 1% appreciation of the FDI in China decreased by 1.63% ;Effect from the regional point of view, the appreciation of the RMB is different to influence the direction and size of the different region;Effect from the industry point of view, the appreciation of the RMB will lead to the reduction of foreign capital. Therefore, to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, Focus on preferential policies for different regions of structural differences is the key to respond to changes in the RMB ex- change rate adversely affect FDI.

关 键 词：引力模型 人民币升值 外商直接投资 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]