基于能值生态足迹模型的泰安市生态安全研究  

Ecological Security Research of Tai'an City Based on Emergy Ecological Footprint Model

作　　者：周慧[1] 郑昭佩[1] 梁兴军[1] 王文华[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东师范大学人口.资源与环境学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2014年第4期1164-1167,共4页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：运用能值-生态足迹模型计算山东省泰安市2003-2012年的人均能值生态承载力和人均能值生态足迹，通过构建生态安全评价指标体系，对其生态安全现状做了动态分析与评价。结果表明，泰安市的人均能值生态承栽力在0．3996hm2上下波动。人均能值生态足迹从5．5612hm2增至7．9506hm2，生态压力指数由11．4826增至25．5964，生态安全状态从“轻度不安全”过渡到“中度不安全”，在2012年已变为“重度不安全”状态。通过建立灰色GM（1，1）预测模型，对泰安市2013～2022年的生态安全状况进行预测，预测结果显示，到加22年，泰安市的人均能值生态承栽力将变为0．2137hm2，人均能值生态足迹将高达10．1461hm2，生态压力指数将增至47．4848，泰安市的生态安全将持续为“极度不安全”状态，可见，泰安市生态安全的发展前景不容乐观。The emergy ecological carrying capacity per capita and the emergy ecological footprint per capita of Tai＇ an in 2003 - 2012 were calculated by the emergy ecological footprint model, and the present condition of ecological safety were analyzed and assessed by the evaluation index system of ecological security. It turned out that the emergy ecological carrying capacity per capita of Tai＇ an fluctuates around 0.399 6 hm2 , the emergy ecological footprint per capita gradually increased from 5. 561 2 hm2 to 7. 950 6 hm2 , and the ecological pressure index in- creased from 11. 482 6 to 25. 596 4. The ecological security status transited from ＂mild unsafe ＂ to ＂moderate unsafe＂ and in 2012, it has he- come ＂severely unsafe＂. The GM（ 1,1 ） prediction model was established to predict the ecological safety of the next 10 years. The predicted results showed that the emergy ecological carrying capacity per capita of Tai＇ an in 2022 would become 0.213 7 hm2, the emergy ecological footprint per capita would be 10. 146 1 hm2, and the ecological pressure index would he 47. 484 8, the ecological security status would contin- ued to he ＂extremely unsafe＂. The development prospect of ecological security in Tai＇ an is not optimistic.

关 键 词：能值-生态足迹模型 泰安市 生态安全 灰色预测 

分 类 号：S181.3[农业科学—农业基础科学]