基于支持向量机方法的输电工程造价指标评估体系  

Index Evaluation System of Power Transmission Project Cost Based on Support Vector Machine Method

作　　者：王绵斌 李欢欢[2] 谭忠富[2] 张金良[2] 

机构地区：[1]国网冀北电力有限公司经济技术研究院,北京市100070 [2]华北电力大学电力经济研究所,北京市102206

出　　处：《电力建设》2014年第3期102-106,共5页Electric Power Construction

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71071053;71201056)

摘　　要：随着工程建造技术的多样化,以工程单位造价为基准的传统型输电工程造价指标评估难以满足精度、可比性等方面的要求,在实际工程造价管理工作中缺乏指导性和实操性。为进一步完善输电工程造价指标体系的广度和精度,考虑到输电工程的各个特征因素,在采集和加工输电工程样本数据,挖掘工程造价关键影响因素的基础上,利用主成分分析和支持向量机方法建立输电工程造价三级评估指标体系。分别构建了体现输电工程造价一般规律的指标评估模型,测算出各个指标的安全区间。样本测试结果显示,该指标体系可将评估误差控制在10%以内,可为工程造价管理提供较可靠的参考信息。Along with the diversification of project construction technology, the conventional evaluation model of power transmission project cost based on unit cost cannot meet the requirements of accuracy, comparability and so on, and it is lacking of instructive and practical operation ability in actual engineering cost management. In order to further improve the breadth and accuracy of the project cost index system, in consideration of the project＇ s characteristic factors, this paper established a three-level evaluation index system for power transmission project with using principal component analysis （PSA） and support vector machine （SVM） method, based on collecting ＆ processing the sample data of power transmission project, and digging the key influencing factors of project cost. Then, the index evaluation model that could reflect the general rules of power transmission project cost was established, and the safety zone of each indicator was calculated. The sample test results show that the index evaluation system can control the evaluation error within 10%, which can provide more reliable reference information for project cost management.

关 键 词：输电工程 工程造价 指标体系 关键影响因素 小样本估算 

分 类 号：TM9[电气工程—电力电子与电力传动]