电网工程全面进度风险指标群链接传递关系及评价模型  

Link Transitive Relation and Evaluation Model of Comprehensive Schedule Risk Indicators Group in Grid Project

作　　者：李佳宇[1] 饶娆[1] 颜艳[1] 甘景双 谭忠富[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京市102206

出　　处：《电力建设》2014年第3期107-112,共6页Electric Power Construction

摘　　要：为了实现电网工程进度的全面风险管理,基于企业风险管理(enterprise risk management,ERM)框架,形成由目标体系、环境体系、组织体系、过程体系及方法体系5个子体系构成的全面进度风险管理框架,并提出环状传递的风险研究方法。基于研究框架,通过"风险地图"的新概念对风险指标群链接关系进行新探索,构建风险评价模型,通过模糊评价法量化各风险的影响值,从而得出各阶段影响程度较大的关键风险,为风险防范及控制提供参考。： In order to achieve the comprehensive schedule risk management of grid project, based on enterprise risk management （ERM） framework, a comprehensive schedule risk management system was formed, which concluded five subsystems： target system, environment system, organization system, process system and method system. Meanwhile, it presented the risk research method with circular transmission. Further, based on the research framework, it explored the risk link relations on the base of a new concept of ＂risk map＂ and built a risk evaluation model, then quantified the impact of each risk value via fuzzy evaluation. Finally, key risk with higher degree of influence was obtained, which could provide a reference for risk prevention and control.

关 键 词：企业风险管理 进度管理 全面进度风险管理体系 风险地图 风险评价 

分 类 号：F281[经济管理—国民经济]