城市综合客运枢纽交通需求预测关键问题  

Prediction on Traffic Demand of Urban Comprehensive Passenger Transport Hub

作　　者：郭淑霞[1] 吴海俊[1] 聂大华[1] 胡松[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京市市政工程设计研究总院,北京市100082

出　　处：《城市道桥与防洪》2014年第1期14-17,5,共4页Urban Roads Bridges & Flood Control

基　　金：住房和城乡建设部2011科学技术项目(2011K5-3)

摘　　要：交通需求预测是城市综合客运枢纽规划和设计的重要基础,是综合客运枢纽研究的关键问题之一。选择交通需求预测中的预测年限和枢纽客流总量预测作为研究对象。首先,通过分析既有的民航、铁路、公路以及轨道交通的相关规范规定,结合综合客运交通枢纽的特点,提出了其合理的预测年限;其次,针对目前枢纽客流总量定义不明晰、使用不统一的问题,分析了既有规范关于枢纽客流总量的规定;最后,明确了综合客运枢纽客流总量定义、预测内容,并对枢纽客流预测在枢纽设计阶段的适用性进行了分析。The prediction of traffic demand is the important basis for the planning and design of urban comprehensive passenger transport hub,and is one of key issues in the study of comprehensive passenger transport hub.Selecting the years and the hub passenger volume in the prediction of traffic demand as the study object,the article firstly analyzes the existing standards and stipulations of the civil aviation,railway,highway and rail traffic,then according to the characteristics of comprehensive passenger transport hub,puts forward its reasonable prediction years,and aiming at the problems of not clear definition and not unified use of hub passenger volume now,analyzes the stipulations of hub passenger volume in the existing standards,and finally makes clear the passenger volume definition and prediction contents of comprehensive passenger transport hub,and analyzes the applicability of hub passenger flow prediction in the design stage of hub.

关 键 词：综合客运枢纽 交通需求预测 预测年限 客流总量 

分 类 号：U412.38[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]