20世纪50-60年代中国人口统计数据考略  

A Verification of China's Population Statistic Data in 1950s-1960s

作　　者：李若建[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学社会学与人类学学院,广东广州510275

出　　处：《南方人口》2014年第1期21-27,共7页South China Population

摘　　要：论文指出,关于1959-1961年人口死亡规模的争议,源于国家统计局1983年公布的历史人口数据的缺陷。论文验证了国家统计局关于数据来源于公安部门的说明,指出1983年公布的数据就是当年的统计数。论文利用公安系统1957年的大规模分年龄人口和分年龄死亡人口的统计,建构了分年龄人口在1953-1964年间的生存率。根据1953年人口普查分年龄人口与生存率,计算了1964年的预期人口,比较了其与1964年人口普查时实际的分年龄人口,证实了当年确实有大量的人口损失存在。There are fierce controversies on how many people were died from China＇s great famine in 1959-1961. One of the main causes for the controversies is the defected historical population data by China＇s Statistics Bureau in 1983. The author pointed out that the data published by China＇s Statistics bureau in 1983 is the yearly data during the great famine collected by China＇s Public security departments. The author constructed the survival rates of the populations by age groups from 1953-1964 based on the public security ministry＇s large scale survey statistic data of the population size and the death population by age groups in 1957. Finally, the population sizes and survival rates by age groups leads to a calculation of the expected population in 1964.The comparison of the calculated population size with the actual population data from 1964 census once again confirmed there were large scale population loss caused by the great famine in 1959- 1961 in China.

关 键 词：饥荒 非正常死亡 生存率 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]