ECMWF细网格数值预报产品在乌鲁木齐东南大风预报中的释用  

The Application of ECMWF Refined Net Numerical Forecast Data in the Southeast Gale in Urumqi

作　　者：万瑜[1] 曹兴[1] 窦新英 陆辉[3] 贾健[1] 

机构地区：[1]乌鲁木齐市气象局,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [2]新疆气象局,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [3]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2014年第1期32-38,共7页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：中国气象预报员专项(CMAYBY2013-078);新疆维吾尔自治区科技支疆项目(2013911016);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(IDM201201)

摘　　要：利用ECMWF细网格数值预报产品和区域自动站、风廓线雷达等常规观测资料,对乌鲁木齐2013年春季南郊发生的一次东南大风过程进行诊断分析和预报释用,揭示了乌鲁木齐东南大风发生和维持的物理机制,发现细网格资料在预报时空分辨率和预报性能等方面均有提高,对东南大风预报具有指示意义,提高了预报的准确性。分析表明:达坂城至南郊一带东南风频发是由于春季地面蒙古高压部分南掉,形成东西间气压梯度力同乌鲁木齐南郊地形狭管方向一致时,并在"慢坡"重力下滑的共同作用下所形成的回流型东南大风;细网格850 hPa风矢量、10 m高度上的风、海平面气压场、2 m高度上的温度等要素预报,对乌鲁木齐南郊东南大风的起止时间、风速量级及落区的预报有较好指示意义。This paper applies ECMWF refined net numerical forecast data, AWOS data, wind profiler data as well as regular data to southeast gale forecasting and diagnostic analyzing in Urumqi southern suburbs in spring, in order to reveal the cause of occurrence and the maintaining of southeast gale so as to understand the meaning of the ECMWF refined net numerical forecast data for southeast gale forecasting and increase accuracy rate of southeast gale forecasting. The analysis indicates that the southeast gale from Urumqi southern suburbs to Dabancheng was caused by the Mongolian high pressure moving southward. The gale was resulted from the east-west pressure gradient, terrain of Urumqi with narrow tube direction and the slope gravity. The information of 850 hPa wind, lO-meter wind, sea level pressure, 2-meter temperature were very useful for the forecast of beginning and end of southeast gale , wind grade and the area hit by the wind. ECMWF refined net numerical forecast data make up the lack of spatial and temporal distribution of data that help the forecasters more clearly understand the occurrence and development of the weather system.

关 键 词：细网格 东南大风 数值预报产品 诊断分析 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]