网络规模叠加法在哈尔滨市暗娼人群规模估计中的应用  

The application of network scale-up method on estimation of female sex worker population size in Harbin city

作　　者：惠珊[1] 李一[1] 王开利[1] 包水莲[1] 郭巍[2] 罗超[3] 刘岩琳[3] 王璐[2] 

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省疾病预防控制中心,哈尔滨150030 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病预防控制中心,北京102206 [3]哈尔滨市疾病预防控制中心,哈尔滨150000

出　　处：《中国艾滋病性病》2014年第1期41-43,共3页Chinese Journal of Aids & STD

基　　金：中国疾病预防控制中心2011年青年科研基金(2011A104);美国疾病预防控制中心全球艾滋病项目(1U2GPS001188)~~

摘　　要：摘要：目的利用网络规模叠加法（NSUM）估计哈尔滨市居民社交网络规模、暗娼人群规模及校正参数。方法采用分层随机抽样方法，在哈尔滨市开展社区居民和暗娼人群社交网络规模问卷调查，利用网络规模叠加法原理估计哈尔滨市居民社交网络规模、暗娼人群规模及校正参数。结果哈尔滨市居民社交网络规模原始值平均规模为271人，经标化与校正后，居民社交网络平均规模为267人，该市暗娼人群社交网络平均规模为65人。估计得到该市暗娼人群的规模约为24116人（95％可信区间：22910～25322），约占该市15～49岁女性人口数的0．75％，计算得到该市暗娼人群规模校正参数为4．1。结论可采用网络规模叠加法通过居民社区调查，对艾滋病高危人群开展规模估计，但需对调查中的偏倚进行评估和调整。Objective To estimate the average personal social network size of Harbin residents, size and calibration parameter of female sex workers in Harbin city by network scale-up method （NSUM）. Methods Community based investigation and female sex workers based investigation were conducted in Harbin to estimate the average personal social network size and the size of female sex workers in Harbin by NSUM. Results The primal size of average personal social network of Harbin residents was 271. After calibration and standardization, the average personal social network size of Harbin residents was 267, and the estimated population size of female sex workers was 24116 （95%CI： 22910, 25322）, which accounted for 0.75% of the total number of females aged from 15 to 49 in Harbin city. Calibration parameter of size for female sex workers was 4.1. Conclusion NSUM can be used to estimate size of populations at risk of HIV/AIDS by community based investigation, hut bias should be estimated and calibrated in NSUM.

关 键 词：网络规模叠加法 暗娼 规模估计 

分 类 号：C81[社会学—统计学] C913.8