基于灰色理论的漂浮救生舱载人漂浮安全性分析  

Safety assessment on manned floatage of submarine escape capsule based on grey theory

作　　者：倪先胜[1] 周成[1] 曹和云[1] 陈欢[1] 陈小宁[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉第二船舶设计研究所,湖北武汉430064

出　　处：《舰船科学技术》2014年第2期130-133,142,共5页Ship Science and Technology

摘　　要：漂浮救生舱是用于失事潜艇艇员集体脱险的设备,其载人漂浮过程是救生安全保障的重要内容。本文采用综合安全性分析方法,对载人漂浮过程进行危险事件识别,建立评估模型,提出基于灰色理论的风险评估方法。通过改进的专家法来确定评价体系的权重,结合改进的灰色评估理论,实现对载人漂浮过程中危险事件的风险概率和风险等级进行定性定量评估,进而提出降低风险管理措施和建议。最后,实例模型的应用不仅验证了所提方法的可行性与有效性,而且为与舰艇相关设备应用安全性分析提供指导。Submarine escape capsule was a special equipment used for distressed submarine crews＇ collective escape, and its manned floatage application is key content of rescue safety. The paper introduced formal safety analysis, identified the hazardous event in the manned floatage process, set up the evaluated model, presented the risk assessment method based on grey theory. The paper determined the evaluation index weight by improved experts＇ judgments, and provided the risk probability and grade of the hazardous event with quality and quantity with improved grey evaluation theory. Finally the risk reduction measure and suggestion were summarized. The application of escape capsule model not only can prove the method＇s feasibility and validity, but also can guide the safety analysis of relative submarine equipment application.

关 键 词：载人漂浮 灰色理论 风险识别 风险评价 

分 类 号：U674.941[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]