干旱区经济增长对城镇化和生态环境压力的影响分析  

Quantitative analysis of the economic growth influence on urbanization and ecological environment pressure in Xinjiang

作　　者：王长建[1,2] 汪菲[1,2] 张小雷[1] 杜宏茹[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,乌鲁木齐830011 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《中国科学院大学学报（中英文）》2014年第2期206-213,共8页Journal of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

基　　金：中国科学院西部行动计划项目(KZCX2-XB3-01)资助

摘　　要：以新疆为例,讨论干旱区经济增长对城市化和生态环境压力的影响,并进行计量分析.研究发现,改革开放以来,新疆的经济增长水平和城市化水平逐步提高.生态环境压力指数的变化趋势比较复杂,2000年之后呈快速增大趋势.经济增长对城市化存在单向因果关系,两者未形成相互促进的良性关系;预测方差分解表明经济增长对提升城市化综合水平的贡献作用越来越低;预测期内经济不断增长,生态环境压力指数也将随之不断增大.应不断增加环保投资的比重、提高能源的有效利用率和控制工业"三废"的排放量,减缓经济增长过程中的生态环境压力.Economic growth and urbanization level in Xinjiang have been gradually increasing since 1978. Economic growth is the Granger causal reason for the comprehensive indexes of the urbanization level and the ecological environment pressure. The contribution rate of G to U is continuously decreasing, but that of G to P is continuously rising. Based on the long-term forecast, the explanatory power of G to P will be improved. We should continue to improve the energy resource utilization efficiency and environmental investment level, in order to reduce the ecological environment pressure during the process of economic growth.

关 键 词：经济增长 城市化 生态环境压力 计量分析 新疆 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]