基于标准化降水指数的云南省近55年旱涝演变特征  

Characteristics of Droughts and Floods Analyzed Using the Standardized Precipitation Index in Yunnan Province During the Past 55 Years

作　　者：杨晓静[1] 左德鹏[1] 徐宗学[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学水科学研究院,水沙科学教育部重点实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《资源科学》2014年第3期473-480,共8页Resources Science

基　　金：中国工程院重大咨询项目:"我国旱涝事件集合应对战略研究"(编号:2012-ZD-13)

摘　　要：21世纪以来极端气候事件频发,其中旱涝灾害对人类影响最为明显。本文以云南省为例,选用标准化降水指数SPI(Standard Precipitation Index)为干旱指标,计算了1958-2012年近55a的29个气象站点5种不同时间尺度上的SPI值,在此基础上分析不同年及季节的旱涝站次比和旱涝强度的变化特征。结果表明:干旱强度在各时间尺度上均呈不同程度增加趋势,春季、秋季、冬季干旱强度及影响范围均呈现增加趋势,夏季干旱的强度和影响范围总体上呈略微下降趋势。雨涝强度在时间尺度上呈下降趋势;夏季雨涝强度和雨涝影响范围呈现略微上升趋势,其他季节均呈现出下降趋势。在当前气候变化背景下,云南省干旱整体上反映对农业生产不利影响加重的态势。研究表明标准化降水指数能够在较长时间系列尺度上很好地反映研究区年际及季节性旱涝变化特征。Since the beginning of the 21 st century, frequent extreme weather events have occurred under a background of global climate change. This pattern reflects the characteristics of climate change and drought and floods are one of the most serious disaster impacts for human beings. Exploring the relationship between climate change and drought/flood disasters using climate change performance characteristics has become a prime research problem. Drought/flood events frequently taken place in Yunnan Province, however, few studies have examined drought and flood assessment in this area. Here, the standardized precipitation index （SPI） was adopted to describe drought and flood conditions at five time scales based on precipitation data from 29 meteorological stations in Yunnan. Drought and flood indices during the last 55 years （1958-2012） in Yunnan were estimated, then annual and seasonal changes in station number for drought/flood frequency and drought/flood intensity were analyzed. The results show that drought events increased at multiple time scales. Drought intensity and its influence increased in spring, autumn and winter, while a slight downward trend exists in summer. Flood intensity and its influence generally showed a downward trend. Flood intensity and its influence in summer exhibited a slight upward trend, while other seasons showed a downward trend. Under global climate change the risk of extreme climate events is increasing, which is harmful for agricultural production in Yunnan. The standardized precipitation index has the ability to describe interannual and seasonal variability of droughts/floods over a lon~ period across the region.

关 键 词：干旱 雨涝 标准化降水指数 云南 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]