太阳活动和大气涛动对天山南北气温波动的综合影响  

The Influence of Solar Activity and Oscillation on Temperature Changes in South and North Tianshan

作　　者：刘栎杉[1] 延军平[1] 李双双[2] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,西安710062 [2]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《资源科学》2014年第3期502-511,共10页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目:"部分重大自然灾害的时空对称性:结构;机理与适应对策"(编号:41171090)

摘　　要：利用天山南北33个气象站点1961-2012年逐日气温数据,运用滑动平均、线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall非参数检验等气候诊断方法,分析了近52年天山南北气温变化趋势、突变特征,探讨了太阳活动、主要大气涛动对气温波动的综合影响。结果表明:①近52年天山南北气温暖化趋势明显。3个分区增温速率关系为:天山南坡(0.256℃/10a)<天山北坡(0.259℃/10a)<天山东段(0.446℃/10a);②天山南北气温变化与太阳活动波动具有一定的规律性,表现为:第19-20周期"反相关",第21-22周期和23周期上升段"正相关",第23周期下降段和第24周期"反相关";③ENSO事件对天山南北气温变化影响相对较弱,且ENSO事件强度与天山南北气温年际变化相关性存在不稳定性;④北极涛动(AO)和北大西洋涛动(NAO)与天山南北气温变化相关性较高且存在季节差异。其中,北极涛动(AO)主要影响天山南北冬季和春季气温变化,空间上天山北坡响应明显于南坡。北大西洋涛动(NAO)主要影响夏季气温变化,空间上夏季气温影响区域广泛,冬季气温影响主要集中在天山南北坡边缘地带;春季气温影响区域主要集中在天山北麓。Based on meteorological data from the 33 stations （1961-2012） in south and north Tianshan we analyzed temperature variation characteristics and the influence of solar activity and oscillation. Methods of moving average, linear regression, Mann-Kendall tests and other climate methods were used. We found that the temperature increment is obvious in south and north Tianshan in the last 52 years. The： climate inclination rates are： southern area （0.256 ~C/10a）〈 northern area （0.259 ~C/10a）〈eastern area （0.446 ~C/10a）. Temperature change has certain regularity with solar activity in south and north Tianshan： anti-correlation in 19th to 20th period, descent stage of 23rh period and 24th period, and positive correlation in 21-22th period and rising of 23th period. The effects of ENSO events were relatively weak on temperature variation. In addition, instability in the relationship between temperature and ENSO after the 1990s has followed a negative correlation. A high relativity of atmospheric oscillation and temperature was found, showing seasonal variation. AO affects the temperature in winter, and higher spatial dependence lie in the plain and front of north Tianshan. The effect of NAO on summer temperature has more relativity than for other seasons, which has an impact on the whole area. The effect of NAO on winter temperature is distributed mainly in the piedmont area of south and north Tianshan. The effect of NAO on spring temperature is distributed mainly in north Tianshan.

关 键 词：气温变化 太阳活动 ENSO AO NAO 天山南北 

分 类 号：P423[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P461