进口猪肉传入猪水泡病风险模型及分析  

Risk Analysis of the Introduction of Swine Vesicular Disease by Importation of Pork

作　　者：尹晓翠[1] 王殿坤[1] 单虎[2] 孙金领[1] 

机构地区：[1]青岛农业大学理学与信息科学学院,山东青岛266109 [2]青岛农业大学动物科技学院

出　　处：《青岛农业大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第4期286-288,共3页Journal of Qingdao Agricultural University(Natural Science)

基　　金：非洲猪瘟等重要外来动物疫病综合防控技术研究(200903055)

摘　　要：猪水泡病(SVD)是一种由接触而传染的动物传染性疾病,任何针对猪或猪产品的贸易都能够导致该疾病由出口国传入进口国,给进口国的畜牧业生产带来很高的风险。本文建立了猪水泡病通过进口猪肉传入我国的风险概率模型。采用pert分布描述模型中的未知参数,将@risk软件嵌入到Excel中并进行10000次模拟分析,结果表明猪水泡病通过进口猪肉传入我国的概率为1.426×10-8。对各种参数进行的敏感性分析表明感染猪被屠宰前未被检出患病的概率对传入风险的影响最大。Swine Vesicular Disease（SVD） is an animal infectious diseases transmitted by contact.Any trade about swine or swine product will cause this disease introduced into import country by the export country,and then carry high risk to our animal husbandry production.A model of the introduction of Swine Vesicular Disease by importation of pork was set up.By use of Pert distribution to describe unknown parameters in the model,and to conducting 10,000 simulation analysis with@risk software embedded into Excel,we got the probability of introduction probability of Swine Vesicular Disease transmitted into our country was 1.426× 10-8,sensitivity analysis was obtained,the result shows that of all parameters the probability of an infected swine not detected illness before being slaughtered influences the introduction risk mostly.

关 键 词：猪水泡病 风险模型 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：S858.285.3[农业科学—临床兽医学]