贸易条件和经常项目变动:“哈伯格-劳尔森-梅茨勒效应”在中国存在吗?  

Terms of Trade and Changes in Current Account: “Is There Exists Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effects in China?”

作　　者：邵飞[1] 陆前进[2] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院,200433 [2]复旦大学国际金融系,200433

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2014年第2期11-22,共12页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70673011、71173042);国家社科基金重大项目(11&ZD018);教育部后期资助(12JHQ030);上海市教委科研创新重点项目资助(13ZS010)

摘　　要：本文以VAR模型为基础对我国1995年至2012年贸易条件和经常项目进行了实证分析,探讨哈伯格-劳尔森-梅茨勒效应(Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect)是否在中国存在。实证结果显示哈伯格-劳尔森-梅茨勒效应在中国是长期存在的。为了进一步分析贸易条件和经常项目的变动,本文把贸易条件分解为永久性贸易条件(permanent changes in terms of trade)和暂时性贸易条件(temporary changes in terms of trade),实证结果显示贸易条件的改变对经常项目的影响取决于多种因素,主要包括贸易条件变动的滞后时间长度、贸易条件的类型等。永久性贸易条件和暂时性贸易条件的改变对经常账户和GDP的影响作用是相反的。本文政策含义强调我国货币当局更应该注重贸易条件对我国贸易收支的影响,提高宏观调控的有效性和针对性。This paper explores whether there exists Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effects in China, based on the VAR model, this paper makes the empirical analysis from 1995 to 2012 time series data. Empirical studies show there exist HLM effects in a long run in China. For further analysis, this paper decomposes the terms of trade into permanent and temporary terms of trade, empirical results show that the changes in the terms of trade depends on many factors to affect current account, mainly including the lag lengths, types of terms of trade, and so on. Changes in permanent and temporary terms of trade have reversed effects on current account and GDP. Policy implications of this paper emphasizes that monetary authorities in China should focus on the relationship between domestic terms of trade and current account and improve effectiveness and relevance of Macro-control.

关 键 词：哈伯格-劳尔森-梅茨勒效应 经常项目 贸易条件VAR模型 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]