中国新一轮重工业化成因与影响——基于省级数据的经验证据  

The Reason of New Round of Heavy Industry Development and the Effect in China——Evidence from the Provincial Data

作　　者：赵佳佳[1] 王建林[2] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学经济与社会发展研究院,116025 [2]东北财经大学产业组织与企业组织研究中心,116025

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2014年第2期41-50,共10页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：辽宁省社会科学规划基金重点项目(L12AJY001)"自然资源环境约束下辽宁重化工业发展战略研究"

摘　　要：进入21世纪后中国重工业增长速度显著加快,关于这一轮重工业化的成因和影响存在较多争议,本文使用30个省级行政区13年的面板数据进行了实证分析,结果表明:"收入提高带来了重工业化"的观点存在夸大成分;政府干预在这一轮重工业化过程中扮演着重要角色;民营企业的参与对重工业化发挥了一定作用;重工业化没有影响到总体从业人员增长,也没有影响到进城务工的农村劳动力增长,没有证据表明重工业化会恶化就业。This paper empirically studies the reason and the influence of Chinese new round heavy industry development with panel data of Chinese 30 provinces during 13 years. Our results indicate the opinion that revenue promotion causes heavy industry development is exaggerative. After controlling more variables economic development level is not as significant as before. Government intervening always plays important role in boosting heavy industry development, which is associated with infrastructure construction, system of tax distribution and GDP achievements assessment. Employment model results indicate heavy industry development neither affects the growth of employee nor affects the growth of rural migrant workers, so there is no evidence show heavy industry development will worsen employment.

关 键 词：重工业化 经济发展 政府干预 就业 

分 类 号：F120.3[经济管理—世界经济]