基于多情景分析的中国建设用地总量控制目标选择  

Options for the Quantity Control of Construction Land Expansion Based on Scenario Analysis

作　　者：王博[1] 姜海[1] 冯淑怡[1] 曲福田[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学中国土地问题研究中心,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2014年第3期69-76,共8页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"我国建设用地总量控制与差别化管理政策研究"(编号:11JZD031);国家社科基金重大项目"土地和矿产资源有效供给与高效配置机制研究"(编号:09&ZD046)

摘　　要：建设用地总量控制目标的选择关系到土地利用规划与土地宏观调控的科学性,单一目标导向的建设用地规模预测具有明显的局限性.基于国家土地宏观调控需要,本文统筹考虑经济发展、粮食安全、生态安全3类基本用地需求,构建建设用地总量控制的多情景分析框架,运用多元回归分析、碳平衡分析等方法构建土地基本需求模型,结合国家发展战略与目标设定模型参数,分析预测不同情景下2020年中国建设用地总量的变化数量及影响.研究结果显示,当2020年中国单位GDP碳排量相对于2005年减少率低于40％时,可行情景的个数为0,土地资源无法同时满足3类基本需求;当2020年全国建设用地总量控制在3 305.75×104 hm2～3 325.10× 104 hm2之间时,经济发展、粮食安全、生态安全的土地需求可以协调并基本得到满足.情景分析表明,中国远期建设用地供给形势主要取决于经济发展方式转变的深度.如果经济发展方式转变滞后,2020年以后中国经济发展、粮食安全、生态安全的用地冲突将难以调和;如果经济发展方式发生显著进步,土地资源可以满足3类基本需求,为经济社会持续发展提供资源支撑.在现有发展阶段,中国应基于粮食安全和生态安全,实行更加有力的建设用地总量倒逼机制,推进经济发展方式转变.同时,建设用地多情景分析框架能够反向检验不同发展战略目标设定的合理性,综合分析建设用地扩张的影响及潜力,可以应用于国家层面土地调控与规划管理实践.Scientifically forecasting the quantity of construction land expansion decides the feasibility and effectiveness of land use planning and land macro-control.Single objective oriented forecast of construction land expansion has significant limitations.This study systematically considers three main land use objectives,including construction land used for achieving economic development,cultivated land for food security,and ecological land for ecological security.Scenario analysis is used to predict the quantity of construction land expansion under different scenarios （defined based on parameters collected from national development strategies） in 2020,in which,multiple regression analysis and carbon balance analysis methods are applied to predict demands for construction land,cultivated land and ecological land.Results show that land resources cannot meet with the three main land use objectives at the same time when per unit GDP carbon emissions in 2020 decreases by 40％ compared to that in 2005.Land demands for economic development,food security and ecological security can be coordinated and satisfied when the quantity of construction land is between 3 305.75 × 104 hm2 and 3 325.10 × 104 hm2 in 2020.Scenario analysis illustrates that the long-term supply of construction land mainly depends on the degree of transformation of economic development mode.Land use conflicts among economic development,food security and ecological security would be difficult to reconcile if the transformation of economic development mode is lag behind.Land resources can satisfy all three types of land use objectives and support sustainable development if the transformation of economic development mode makes significant progress.In the current stage of economic development,to achieve food security and ecological security,China should apply more powerful mechanisms to control construction land expansion and therefore promote the transformation of economic development mode.Scenario analysis method can also be used to examine the feasibi

关 键 词：经济发展 粮食安全 生态安全 建设用地扩张 多情景分析 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]