中国畜牧业脱钩分析及影响因素研究  

Disconnect Analysis and Influence Factors of Animal Husbandry in China

作　　者：陈瑶[1,2] 尚杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学经济管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150040 [2]东北农业大学出版中心,黑龙江哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2014年第3期101-107,共7页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"基于低碳经济的制造业绿色创新体系及知识流动研究"(编号:71073041);教育部博士点基金"基于TRIZ理论的中国农村生物质能产业链整合模式及支撑体系研究"(编号:20120062110015);黑龙江省哲学社会科学项目"低碳经济框架下黑龙江省低碳经济增长方式转变的路径研究"(编号:12E058)

摘　　要：畜牧业已成为全球人为温室气体的主要排放源,同时,畜禽粪便成为环境污染的重要源头。本文在测算我国畜牧业温室气体排放的基础上,基于脱钩理论分析了我国畜牧业温室气体排放与畜牧业产值之间的脱钩情况,并借助LMDI模型对影响我国畜牧业温室气体排放的影响因素进行分解,结果表明:我国畜牧业CH4和N2O排放量分别由2001年的1 068.40万t和39.37万t变化到2011年的1 041.81万t和40.87万t,肠道发酵是CH4排放的最大贡献者,而粪便管理则是N2O排放的重要诱因;在肠道发酵CH4排放中,排放最多的是牛,其次是山羊和绵羊,最少的是兔子,在粪便管理CH4排放中,排放最多的是猪,最少的是骆驼;生猪和牛是粪便管理N2O排放的主要贡献者,而骆驼最少;2001-2011年期间我国畜牧业温室气体排放与畜牧业产值之间的脱钩状态主要分为强脱钩和弱脱钩两种状态,整体脱钩弹性值为-0.004,呈强脱钩状态,脱钩稳定性系数为1.428 7,脱钩稳定性较差;经济因素是影响我国畜牧业温室气体排放的最大因素,短期内效率因素是我国畜牧业低碳化发展的最主要诱因,而从长期来看劳动力因素是我国畜牧业低碳化发展的最主要因素。笔者认为,强化低碳养殖技术和粪便清洁处理技术的研发与应用,培育畜禽优良品种,提升畜牧业从业人员的专业素质,推动农村剩余劳动力转移就业,培育职业农民,促进畜牧养殖业的规模化、集约化经营,提升饲料转化效率,是我国畜牧业温室气体减排的关键和实现路径。Animal husbandry has become the main source of global greenhouse gas emissions.Meanwhile,the poultry manure becomes an important source of environmental pollution.Based on the calculation of China animal husbandry greenhouse gas emissions and the decoupling theory,the paper analyzed the decoupling situation between China animal husbandry greenhouse gas emissions and animal husbandry output value,and by using the LMDI model,we carried on the analysis on the factors affecting the development of China animal husbandry greenhouse gas emissions.The result showed that：the amount of CH4 and N2O emissions of China animal husbandry increased from 1 068.40 tons and 39.37 tons of 2001 to 1 041.81 tons and 40.87 tons of 2011.Enteric fermentation is the biggest contributor to CH4 emissions,however,manure management is an important cause of N2O emissions; in enteric fermentation CH4 emission,the most emission is cattle,followed by goats and sheep,and the least is the rabbit,in manure management CH4 emission,the largest emission is pig,and the least is the camel; pig and cattle manure management is the main contribution of N2O emission,and camels are the least; 2001-2011 decoupling state between China animal husbandry greenhouse gas emissions and animal husbandry output value was divided into strong and weak,and the overall separation elasticity value was-0.004,which showed the strong decoupling state; there is a strong decoupling state between China animal husbandry greenhouse gas emissions and animal husbandry output value,and the decoupling stability coefficient was 1.4287,which showed poor stability; the economic factor was the biggest factor affecting China animal husbandry greenhouse gas emissions; the short-term efficiency factor was the main inducement of low-carbon development of animal husbandry in China,but in the long run the labor factor is the main factor of low-carbon development of animal husbandry in China.The author thought the key ways to reduce China animal husbandry of greenhouse gas emission were to stre

关 键 词：畜牧业 温室气体排放 脱钩理论 LMDI模型 

分 类 号：S168[农业科学—农业气象学]