房地产价格增长是否阻碍城镇化进程——基于我国31个省级单位面板数据的经验分析  

If the Real Estate Price Growth Hinder the Urbanization Process——based on the analysis of the experience of panel data of 31 provincial units

作　　者：梁珊[1] 郑子龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《中国房地产（学术版）》2014年第2期31-36,共6页China Real Estate

摘　　要：通过对我国31个省级单位面板数据进行实证研究,发现从全国整体来看,房地产价格上涨对城镇化进程体现出正向促进作用,但是根据地区层级上的分析,在中西部地区房地产价格增长对城镇化具有显著的负向抑制作用。可见,现阶段房地产价格显然在阻碍城乡间劳动力要素流动方面扮演了重要角色。不断增长的房价增加了城镇化成本,对于农村劳动力转移起到阻碍作用。因此,为了保障新型城镇化的实现,必须通过土地、财政、金融等制度变革与其他市场化手段相结合,遏制房地产价格继续过快上涨,从而实现房地产市场与新型城镇化的协调发展。Based on the empirical research of 31 provincial-level panel data in China, we find the increase in real estate prices has a net positive effect on urbanization process in a national level, but according to the regional-level analysis, growth in Midwest real estate prices has a significant negative inhibitory effect for Urbanization. Therefore, the real estate price at the current stage plays an important role in labor mobility between rural and urban areas. Continually increasing in real estate prices raises the cost of urbanization and has a blocking effect on labor mobility. As a result, in order to safeguard the new urbanization process, land system reform, financial and fiscal system reform must be combined with other marketization means to curb the real estate prices to continue to rise too fast, in order to achieve the coordinated development of the real estate market with the new urbanization.

关 键 词：城镇化 房地产价格 抑制效应 

分 类 号：F832.39[经济管理—金融学]