飞行器机动动作风险定量评估模型  

Risk quantitative evaluation model of the aircraft maneuver

作　　者：刘瑛[1,2] 李敏强[1] 陈富赞[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理与经济学部 [2]中国人民解放军95927部队

出　　处：《系统工程与电子技术》2014年第3期469-475,共7页Systems Engineering and Electronics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(61074152)资助课题

摘　　要：为了定量评估机动动作的风险,构建机动动作风险定量评估模型。提出使用关键点划分机动动作,并给出了不同风险等级的划分及其含义;由于关键点的风险等级与参数离差划分区间之间的不确定性,使用贝叶斯定理确定关键点处于不同风险等级的概率,并结合不同风险等级的权重得到关键点的风险值;由于专家在判断过程中的模糊性及不确定性,使用模糊层次分析法确定不同关键点的权重,最终实现了机动动作风险的定量评估。仿真实验部分以典型的机动动作斤斗为例进行研究,通过对斤斗动作实际数据的分析,验证了机动动作风险定量评估模型的有效性。To evaluate the risk of the aircraft maneuver, a risk quantitative evaluation model is proposed. Key points are used to divide the maneuver and the definitions of different risk levels are given. As the uncer- tainty of the relationship between risk levels and parameters deviation, Bayesian inference is used to determine the probabilities of different risk levels. Combined with the weights of different risk levels, the risk values of different key points can be obtained. Because of the fuzzy judgment of different experts, fuzzy analytical hierarchy process （FAHP） is used to determine the weights of the key points. Finally, the risk quantitative assessment of the maneuver is realized. The risk quantitative evaluation model is used to analyze the characteristic maneuver, i.e. loop. Through the analysis of the real data of the looo maneuver,the effectiveness of the model is validated.

关 键 词：机动动作 风险等级 风险评估 贝叶斯定理 模糊层次分析法 

分 类 号：V328.3[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]