非对称时变共因失效的随机冲击-随机阈值模型  

Random shock-random threshold based on asymmetric time-varying common cause failure model

作　　者：郝志鹏[1] 曾声奎[1] 郭健彬[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学可靠性与系统工程学院,北京100191

出　　处：《系统工程与电子技术》2014年第3期598-602,共5页Systems Engineering and Electronics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(61304218)资助课题

摘　　要：发生共因失效时,同一因素对共因部件组的影响既可能因单元而异,也可能随时间变化。针对同时存在非对称性和时变性的共因失效现象,提出"随机冲击-随机阈值"模型,统一解决非对称性、时变性两类问题,并可应用到多共因场景。与共因失效概率仅反映故障模式不同,本模型能深入分析不同原因及影响。以风力发电机为对象,在阈值分布相异,受破坏性作用的风和海浪冲击情况下,验证了模型的适用性。实例证明,"随机冲击-随机阈值"模型为解决非对称性和时变性两类问题,以及单一共因和多个共因2个场景,提供了统一的解决框架。When common cause failure occurs, the effect of the same cause may show diversity among the units in the common cause component group, or may vary with time. To evaluate the asymmetric time varying common cause failure, a ＂random shock-random threshold＂ model is proposed in order to solve both the asym metric problem and the time varying problem together. The model can also be applied in multiple common cause cases. Different from the focus of common cause failure probability, which is only on failure modes, this model can fully investigate different causes and their effects. The feasibility of the model is demonstrated by wind tur bines with different threshold distributions, under the destructive shocks caused by wind and wave. The appli cation illustrates that the proposed model provides a unified framework to evaluate the asymmetric time varying common cause failure in case of either single cause or multiple causes.

关 键 词：共因失效 非对称性 时变性 随机冲击 随机阈值 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]