1960—2011年东北地区热量资源时空变化特征  

Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Variation in Heat Resource over Northeast China during the Period from 1960 to 2011

作　　者：梁宏[1] 王培娟[2] 章建成[3] 李祎君 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局气象探测中心,北京100081 [2]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [3]中国气象局,北京100081 [4]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2014年第3期466-479,共14页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(2010CB951304);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GY-HY201106026);国家自然科学基金(40901170)

摘　　要：基于196-2011年东北地区88个气象站逐日气温资料，采用Kendall-Theil线性趋势估计等方法探讨了该地区热量资源的时空变化特征。结果表明，近50多年东北地区稳定≥0oC积温以25～95℃.d／10a的趋势显著增加，三江平原的增加趋势明显大于东部山区。稳定≥0℃气温的起始期在东北北部和中部显著提前，终止期在北部基本显著延后，日平均气温稳定≥0℃的日数在北部和中部地区基本以2～4d／10a的趋势显著增加。东北地区大部分站点终霜冻日期明显提前，初霜冻日期明显延后，无霜冻期基本以3～5d／10a的趋势显著增加。稳定≥10℃积温以30～110℃.d／10a的趋势显著增加，稳定≥10℃气温的起始期北部地区湿著提前，终止期南部地区显著延后，作物有效生长期在中部和北部地区基本以2～4d/10a的趋势显著增加。Northeast China （NC） is an important commodity grain base with strategic role in China. The variations of heat resources and their influences on agriculture in this region are greatly of concern under global warming conditions. Here the spatial and temporal distribu- tions of variations and trends in heat resources are analyzed using datasets including homoge- neous daily mean and minimal air temperature observations at 88 sites in NC during the peri- od from 1960 to 2011. The Kendall-Theil robust line method is employed to estimate the slopes of the daily mean and minimal air temperature time series. The results show that accu- mulated temperature steadily above 0 ℃ increased by 25-95 ℃.d/10 a. The magnitude of in- creasing trends of the accumulated temperature in Three Rivers Plain area in NC are obvi- ously larger than corresponding values in eastern mountain regions. The starting dates have been brought forward significantly in northern region （including Heilongjiang Province and Hulunbeier city and Xinganmeng area in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region） and central region （including Jilin Province） of NC. The end date has been delayed significantly in northern part of NC. The number of days in which daily mean temperature steadily above 0 ℃ significantly increased by 2-4 d/10 a in northern and central parts of NC. The starting date of frost-free period has been significantly advanced and end date significantly delayed over most of NC. The number of frost free days significantly increased by 3-5 d/10 a. The accumulated temperature steadily over 10 ℃ increased by 30-110 ℃/10 a. This change is more prominent in northern part of NC than that in the southern of NC. The beginning date of daily mean air temperature steadily over 10 ℃ has been brought forward significantly in northern part of NC. The end date of daily mean air temperature steadily over 10 ℃ has been delayed significantly in southern part of NC. The effective growing seasons have been significantly lengthened by 2-4 d/10 a in n

关 键 词：农业气象学 热量资源 Kendall—Theil线性趋势估计 东北地区 

分 类 号：P468.0[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]