基于Logistic模型的农户集中居住意愿分析——以三峡库区(重庆段)部分区县为例  

Analysis of the Farmers' Centralized Residence Intention Based on Logistic Model——Cases on The Three Gorges Reservoir Suburbs and Counties

作　　者：谢玲[1] 李孝坤[1] 余婷[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆师范大学地理与旅游学院,重庆400047

出　　处：《重庆师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第2期28-34,F0003,共8页Journal of Chongqing Normal University:Natural Science

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(No.11YJAZH049);国家自然科学基金((No.41101563;No.41201133);地理学重庆市"十二五"重点学科

摘　　要：基于三峡库区(重庆段)部分区县乡村聚落的农户问卷调查所得数据,运用二元选择Logistic模型,分别从农户个人基本情况、农户家庭基本情况、基础设施状况及农户心理认知状况等4个方面选取14个指标对农户参与集中居住的影响因素和意愿进行了回归分析与实证研究。结果表明:性别、文化程度、家庭总人口数和对现居生产生活环境的满意程度为影响农户参与集中居住的主要因素。农户个人基本情况、农户家庭基本情况、基础设施状况及农户心理认知状况4方面中,农户个人基本情况对于农户集中居住有显著影响。其中,农户文化程度、家庭年总收入、对现居村庄生产生活环境的满意程度等因素与农户集中居住呈正相关关系;家庭总人口数、耕地面积、亩均粮食产量等因素与农户参与集中化居住具有显著的负相关关系。可见,三峡库区乡村聚落不同特征农户对于集中居住的意愿是不同的,影响参与集中居住的因素也存在着差别,鉴于此,文章提出了合理引导乡村居民适度集中居住的相关建议。这对新农村建设与城乡统筹发展战略的顺利实施具有重要的现实意义。This paper endeavors to explore the effect factors and intention of centralized living in The Three Gorges Reservoir Area. In order to clarify the elements, we choose the method of Logistic Model, the material is based on the surveys and questionnaires in- volves in some sections related to this filed in The Three Gorges Reservoir Area. We selected 14 indexes from four dimensions of in- dividual data of farmer, the domestic status, the basic infrastructure situation and farmers~ cognitive psychologist to conduct a re- gression analysis and empirical research. The results indict that sexes, education background, household population, degree of satis- faction with the living condition, perhaps are the main cause accounting for the centralized living of farmers. However, the individu- al states strongly influence the centralized living. Furthermore, education background, annual family income and degree of satisfac- tion with the living environment factors have significant positive effects on centralized residence. On the other hand, household pop- ulation, farmland area and the degree of satisfaction have negative relationship with the living environment. What we have conducted shows the centralized residence intentions of farmer are different from their characteristics in The Three Gorges Reservoir Area. A- mong those factors, there has been inner discrimination. In this context, we developed some suggestion to stimulation rural resi- dence to moderate centralized residence. It is of great importance in the strategy of New Countryside Construction and Urban-Rural Integrated Development. The findings may provide the impractical reference in this field.

关 键 词：农户集中居住 影响因素 意愿 LOGISTIC模型 三峡库区(重庆段) 

分 类 号：K901[历史地理—人文地理学]