论 IPCC-AR4模式对影响西北太平洋热带气旋的大气动力环境场的气候特征模拟性能  

Assessments on climatologic simulation of atmospheric dynamic environment of tropical cyclone over western North Pacific in IPCC-AR4 models

作　　者：余锦华[1] 赵晓彤[1] 陈成[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室大气科学学院,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《海洋学报》2014年第3期61-72,共12页

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41375098);国际科技合作项目(2010DFA24650);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200806009);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)

摘　　要：评估了23个IPCC-AR4模式在低纬地区1948—1999年7—9月大尺度环流场的模拟性能,重点关注西北太平洋区域的西太副高、季风槽以及台风活动海域的垂直风切变。结果显示,绝大多数模式的7—9月低纬地区500hPa平均高度场、850hPa风场空间分布与NCEP都具有很高的相似性,但大多模式500hPa高度场存在系统性偏低,而850hPa风场偏强。所有模式模拟的西北太平洋副高脊线与NCEP都有一致的西南-东北走向,但有些模式的脊线位置偏离NCEP的较远。有4个模式没有模拟出类似于NCEP的季风槽线。综合模式对夏季热带环流场、西北太平洋副热带高压、季风槽以及西北太平洋热带气旋活动关键区域垂直风切变气候特征的模拟性能,按性能优劣,排在前10的模式依次是mpi_echam5、cccma_t63、gfdl_cm2_1、cnrm_cm3、cccma_t47、ukmo_hadgem1、ingv_echam4、ncar_ccsm3_0、csiro_mk3_5、mri_cgcm2_3_2a;排在后6位的模式是inmcm3_0、iap_fgoals1_0_g、ipsl_cm4、miroc3_2_medres、giss_eh、giss_er。The fidelity of atmospheric circulation over tropical regions ,especially subtropical high ,monsoon trough and vertical wind shear over the regions of tropical cyclone activity in the coupled general circulation models （CGCM） participating in the Forth Assessment Report （AR4） of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）is accessed by virtue of comparing simulated climate field with that of National Center Environmental Pre-diction（NCEP）/National Center Atmospheric Research （NCAR） during 1948-1999 from July to September. It is found that vast majority of 23 IPCC-AR4 models show a good performance in mean state in 500 hPa height field over the domain 0°-40°N ,0°E-180°-0°W and 850 hPa wind field over the region 20°S-40°N ,0°E-180°-0°W-180°-0°W ,but in comparison to that of NCEP/NCAR ,most of models show a low bias in 500 hPa height and a strong bias in 850 hPa wind flow.The subtropical high ridge over the western North Pacific of all models is in NE-SW orientation which is similar to that of NCEP/NCAR ,but some of models＇ridge locates to far away from the latter. Monsoon troughs of four models are absent from 850 hPa flow and six of monsoon troughs in models occur to the west of 140°E. According to the performance of simulation in spatial structure of atmospheric circulation over tropical area ,subtropical high ridge ,monsoon trough in the western North Pacific and vertical wind shear in active regions of tropical cyclone over western North Pacific in summer （ from July to September） ,the first ten excellent models are successively mpi_echam5、cccma_t63、gfdl_cm2_1、cnrm_cm3、cccma_t47、ukmo_had-gem1、ingv_echam4、ncar_ccsm3_0、csiro_mk3_5、mri_cgcm2_3_2a and the last six models are successively inmcm3_0、iap_fgoals1_0_g、ipsl_cm4、miroc3_2_medres、giss_eh、giss_er.

关 键 词：IPCC-AR4模式 西北太平洋热带气旋 动力环境场 模拟评估 

分 类 号：P732.4[天文地球—海洋科学]