武汉地区儿童哮喘的定量风险评估模型构建  

Establishment of a Quantitative Risk Evaluation Model on Childhood Asthma in Wuhan City

作　　者：黄洋[1] 杨磊[1] 龙珍[1] 黄兆选[1] 安常青[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖北省妇女儿童医院呼吸内科,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（医学版）》2014年第2期213-215,共3页Medical Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：湖北省自然科学基金资助项目(编号:2013CFC098)

摘　　要：目的:构建儿童哮喘发病风险定量评估模型,用于筛选具有哮喘发病高风险的患儿。方法:武汉地区0-14岁的儿童及婴幼儿,确诊哮喘患儿173名,按照1∶1配对,选取非哮喘儿童173名,共346名儿童,每组随机抽取5名儿童,共10名儿童组成测试数据库,剩余336名儿童组成建模数据库,依据6个危险因素构建定量评估模型,模型构建完毕后进行数据回代拟合,并利用测试数据库测试模型对未知数据的预测正确性。结果:构建了儿童哮喘发病的风险定量评估模型,并对未知数据进行了预测判别,正确率达到80%。结论:构建儿童哮喘发病的风险定量评估,可以实现简便快速的筛查哮喘高危儿童。Objective. To build up a quantitative risk evaluation model for childhood asthma, and screenthe children who are susceptible to asthma. Methods： The study population was the infant andchildren whose age ranged from 0 to 14 years old in Wuhan city, and the sample size ot asthma group and control group was 173 respectively. Five children were selected by random from eachgroup to build up database for testing the predictive correct rate of model, and the database included 336 children to build up quantitation evaluation model. The independent variables were 6 risk factors of asthma. After finishing model building, the data in testing database were used to check the predictive correct rate. Results： A quantitative risk evaluation model had been built up, and the correct predict classification percentage was 80% of this model. Conclusion： A novel risk evaluation model had been built up based on 6 parameters which can be easily acquired from questionnaire, and it can be used to screen the children with high risk to asthma.

关 键 词：儿童哮喘 风险 定量评估 预测 

分 类 号：R725.6[医药卫生—儿科]