基于TIGGE资料的台风“鲇鱼”路径北翘成因分析  

AN ANALYSIS OF ABRUPT NORTHWARD TURNING OF TYPHOON MEGI(1013) USING TIGGE DATA

作　　者：郭旭[1] 麻素红[2] 吴俞 龙柯吉[4] 

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程学院,四川成都610225 [2]中国气象局数值预报中心,北京100081 [3]琼海市气象局,海南琼海571400 [4]四川省气象局,四川成都610072

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2014年第1期55-63,共9页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2009CB421500)资助

摘　　要：利用欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)集合预报资料,对比分析了成功预报"鲇鱼"北翘路径的成员(北翘组)和没有预报"鲇鱼"北翘路径的成员(西行组)的环境场及台风环流特点。结果显示:从环境场来看,在预报前期北翘组在"鲇鱼"北侧的副热带高压偏弱,副热带高压断裂东退发生的时间比西行组早,而在预报后期,北翘组西风槽比西行组强;而从"鲇鱼"环流来看,初始时刻北翘组和西行组存在明显不同的非对称结构,在后期预报中,北翘组"鲇鱼"环流范围明显比西行组大。北翘组"鲇鱼"环流初始时刻的非对称结构以及其南侧偏弱的低压环流使得"鲇鱼"环流后期偏大、东南侧及东侧偏南气流偏强,这有利于"鲇鱼"北侧副热带高压断裂东退和西风槽发展南移。The characteristics of the environmental flow and the vortex of typhoon ＂Megi＂ are analyzed using the data provided by an ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Analyses are carried out for two groups; one group consists of 5 members which predicted the abrupt northward turning of Megi （named as the NT group） and the other group consists of 5 members which predicted the westward moving of Megi （named as the W group）. The results show that the subtropical high to the north of ＂Megi＂ in the NT group is weaker during the early stage of the forecast and also breaks into two parts earlier compared to the W group. A westerly trough is stronger in the late stage of the NT group. There are different asymmetric structures of the vortex of ＂Megi＂in the two groups at the initial time and the size of ＂Megi＂ in the NT group is larger than that in the W group. The asymmetric structures and the weak low pressure to the south of ＂Megi＂ are helpful to the relatively big size of ＂Megi＂ in the late stage and this accelerates the breaking of the subtropical high and the southward development of the westerly trough.

关 键 词：天气学 特征分析 非对称结构 北翘路径 台风“鲇鱼” 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]