新型农村社会养老保险农民缴费意愿的可持续性分析  

Analysis on the Sustainability of Farmers' Willingness to Pay for New Rural Social Old-age Insurance

作　　者：薛惠元[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学社会保障研究中心,武汉430072

出　　处：《西北人口》2014年第2期85-91,97,共8页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"新型农村社会养老保险制度研究"(09JZD0027);国家社会科学基金青年项目"新型农村社会养老保险制度的可持续性评估研究"(11CSH067);中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目"新型农村社会养老保险基金收支平衡的可持续性研究"(2013T60748)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：拥有财政补助政策是新农保制度最有吸引力的地方。选取养老金净转入额、农民参保缴费的机会成本来分析农民缴费意愿的可持续性,发现新农保是一项纯受益赚钱的制度,出于安全性、稳健性和收益性等方面的考虑,一个理性的农民是不会随便放弃参加新农保的。利用对湖北省仙桃市的实地调研数据进行分析发现:72.4%的农民有缴费意愿;性别、是否了解新农保政策、对自己未来老年生活的担心程度等变量,对农民的缴费意愿有显著的影响。为实现农民缴费意愿的可持续性,建议加强新农保的宣传,实现政府政务公开;落实好"长缴多补"政策;加强新农保的行政推动,适时改为强制参保。Financial subsidy policy is the most attractive point of the new rural social old-age insurance system. We select net transferring pension amount and insured farmers＇ opportunity cost,such two indicators to analyze the sustainability of farm- ers willingness to pay. It is found that the new rural social old-age insurance system is a pure benefit system for farmers. A rational farmer will not give up participating in the system considering for safety ,soundness ,profitability and others. By ana- lyzing the research data of Xiantao City,we discover that 72.4% of the farmers have the willingness to pay;Gender,under- standing of the system,and worrying level about their future old age life have a significant impact on farmers＇ willingness to pay. To achieve the sustainability of farmers＇ willingness to pay,it is suggested to intensify propaganda,to make government administrative affairs public,to implement ＂long overpaid subsidy＂ policy;to strengthen administrative promotion, and to change into a mandatory insurance timely.

关 键 词：新型农村社会养老保险 缴费意愿 可持续性 机会成本 影响因素 

分 类 号：F840.61[经济管理—保险]