乌鲁木齐市生活用水量影响因素的岭回归分析  

The Ridge Regression Analysis of Influence Factors of Urban Life Water Consumption in Urumqi

作　　者：德娜.吐热汗 李轮溟[1] 米拉吉古丽[1] 刘新平[2] 

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学数理学院,乌鲁木齐830052 [2]新疆农业大学管理学院,乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《新疆农业科学》2014年第2期370-374,共5页Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70863011);新疆农业大学校内前期课题(XJAU201206)

摘　　要：【目的】研究乌鲁木齐市城市生活用水量的影响因素,找到主要影响因素及相互影响的数量关系。【方法】利用来自《乌鲁木齐市统计年鉴》的数据,建立乌鲁木齐城市生活用水量的岭回归模型。【结果】第三产业值、水价对城市生活用水量增长的影响最为显著,其次为城市人口数量和收入。【结论】通过优化第三产业的内部结构、合理制定水价,加大节水教育、进行节水技术的开发与实施,为乌鲁木齐市供水规划提供参考依据。[Objective] The paper explores the influence factors which affects life water consumption in Urumqi in order to find the main factors and the relationship between the numbers of mutual influence.[Method] To established the ridge regression model of urban life water consumption in Urumqi by adopting the statistical data from the ＂Urumqi Statistical Yearbook＂.[Result] The tertiary industry value and the water price have the most significant effect on the increase of urban life water consumption,followed by the city population and revenue.[Conclusion] For Urumqi＇s water supply plan,the paper provided such Referencess as optimization of internal structure of the tertiary industry,establishment a reasonable water price,enhancement of water-saving education,development and implementation of water-saving technology.

关 键 词：生活用水量 影响因素 岭回归模型 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学] F224.0