基于事故树的窃电损失要因分析  

Root Cause Analysis for Electricity Stealing Losses Based on the Accident Tree Method

作　　者：辛洁晴[1] 夏正侃[2] 高亦凌[1] 史涛[2] 张杨[2] 翟莺鸽[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学电气工程系,上海200240 [2]上海市电力公司市北供电公司,上海200072

出　　处：《电力系统及其自动化学报》2014年第3期47-51,共5页Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA

摘　　要：窃电损失要因分析对构建有效的反窃电措施具有指导意义。将事故树分析方法应用于供电公司窃电损失要因分析,并在采用4M1E法分析窃电损失风险因素的基础上,构建了描绘窃电损失发生机理的事故树,再据事故树计算各风险因素的结构重要性系数。结果表明,造成窃电损失风险的关键因素在于辖区内用户信用度、稽查人员的素质和经验、窃电可疑用户搜索方法、稽查辅助工具、反窃电工作流程规范性5个方面。最后对供电公司窃电损失风险应对措施提出了建议。Root cause analysis （RCA） of electricity stealing losses is the basis for designing effective anti-electricity- stealing measures. The accident tree method is used in this paper for this purpose. After analyzing the elementary risk factors inducing electricity-stealing losses by the 4M 1E method, an accident tree is established to show how electrici- ty-stealing-losses happen, based on which the structure importance coefficients of the elementary risk factors are cal- culated. Results show that root causes of electricity-stealing losses include five aspects, which are the customersI cred- its, the moralities and experiences of the inspectors, the effectiveness of the method for searching the fraudulent cus- tomers, the effectiveness of the inspection tools and the anti-electricity-stealing specified workflow. Anti-electricity- stealing measures are proposed based on the above five aspects at the end of the paper.

关 键 词：反窃电 要因分析 事故树 结构重要性系数 

分 类 号：F407.61[经济管理—产业经济]