房地产市场供求均衡与房地产价格研究——以北京商品房市场为例  

Study on the Equilibrium of the Supply and Demand of the Real Estate Market and Its Price in the Case of Beijing Real Estate Market

作　　者：胡朝晖[1,2] 李秀婷[2] 董志[2] 高鹏[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大学虚拟经济与数据科学研究中心,北京100190 [2]中国科学院大学管理学院,北京100190

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2014年第5期27-34,共8页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71173213);中国科学院预测科学中心项目(Y12901PED2)

摘　　要：中国房价上涨幅度较大，研究房地产供求市场及其价格，能把握房地产市场规律，促进房地产市场的平稳健康发展．研究从供求均衡理论角度分析了房地产市场的供求规律及其价格，通过建立商品房市场的供需动态均衡模型，以1990~2010年北京市商品房市场为例，对房地产市场的供求弹性、与长期均衡之间的关系及其对房地产价格的影响进行了实证研究与分析．研究表明房地产供给市场长期略具弹性，而需求市场长期弹性较大，价格对商品房市场的调节作用并不明显，实现房地产市场的供求均衡，需要政府力量的介入并对市场进行宏观调控．The house price in China roses by a big margin. This research on the housing supply-demand and its price, can help us grasp the law of real estate market. In this study, we apply the equilibrium of supply and demand theory to built the; dynamic equilibrium model of the commercial housing supply-demand. So, we get the law of supply and demand of the real estate market and. Also, we take the Beijing real estate market form 1990 to 2010 for the empirical analysis to investigate the relationship between the elasticity of supply and demand, the long-term equilibrium of the real estate market and its impact on the house price. This research shows that the supply of real estate market is long-term slight elastic. But the long- term elasticity of demand of real estate market is bigger than the supply＇s. We also find that the role of price adjustment on the real estate is not obvious. To achieve the equilibrium of supply and demand, the real estate market needs the government intervention and the macro-control.

关 键 词：房地产市场 供求均衡 商品房价格 政府调控 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]