煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故单危险源风险度量模型研究  

Research on the Risk Assessment Models of Single-hazards in Coal Mine Gas Explosion Accidents

作　　者：李新春[1] 刘全龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学管理学院,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2014年第3期88-94,共7页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目<多因素耦合作用下煤矿事故复杂性机理及其风险度量研究>(71271206);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划<煤矿安全管理>(NCET-10-0766)

摘　　要：本文研究了煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故危险源的分类,把危险源划分为人的不安全行为、机器设备不安全状态、环境不安全特征和管理缺陷四大类,并根据煤矿现场调查各类危险源的数据以及相应数学方法的特点,提出煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故人、机器设备(物)、环境、管理四类危险源的风险度量方法,在此基础上构建四类危险源的风险度量模型。研究表明,危险源的风险度量模型由风险发生的可能性、危险源重要度以及事故导致的损失构成;危险源风险发生的可能性,在具体应用中可以采用各类危险源的不可靠度、故障率等来衡量;危险源在事故中的重要度可以通过分析事故故障树种要素结构重要性获取。根据风险评价的结果,可以对危险源进行分级排序,从而为煤矿事故单危险源的控制提供依据。The hazards of coal mine gas explosion accidents are divided into four categories which are the personal hazards, material （machine） hazards, environmental hazards, and management hazards according to analyzing the fault tree in this paper. Moreover, the methods of assessing the risk values of the four kinds of hazards are put forward based on analyzing their characteristics and then the risk assessment models are constructed. The results show that the risk assessment models are composed of probability, importance degree, and loss, and the risk value is the product of the three. Furthermore, the probability of the risk of the personal hazards, material （machine） hazards, environmental hazards, and management hazards are obtained by assessing the unreliability degree of people＇s unsafe behavior, the failure rate of machine＇s unsafe state, the membership grade of environment＇s unsafe characteristics, and the irrationality of management＇s faultiness respectively. And the importance degree is obtained by analyzing their influencing degree in the fault tree. Finally, the priority level of controlling the hazards can be ascertained according to their risk values and then take some related and targeted measures to precontrol the accidents.

关 键 词：煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故 单危险源 风险度量 事故树分析法 

分 类 号：TD771[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全] O221.65[理学—运筹学与控制论]