试论农业信息与风险预警  

Study on Agricultural Information and Risk Warning

作　　者：孔繁涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所/农业部农业信息服务技术重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2014年第5期309-313,共5页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金："十二五"科技支撑计划课题"农业生产与市场流通匹配管理及信息服务关键技术研究与示范"(2012BAH20B04);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项"农产品信息监测预警技术与系统构建"(2012ZL017);"十一五"国家科技支撑计划重点项目"农产品数量安全智能分析与预警的关键技术及平台研究"(2009BADA9B01)

摘　　要：探究农业信息与风险防范、预警分析等关系,对于减少农业灾害损失、保障农产品安全、促进农业健康发展具有重要的理论意义和实践意义。剖析了农业风险的基本涵义,论述了农业风险、监测、信息、熵和预警的逻辑关系:风险是预警存在的充分和必要条件,预警是管理风险、寻求安全的手段和方法;监测是预警的基础,预警是监测的延伸;信息和风险成反比例关系;农业安全风险预警是一个通过信息分析、增加负熵、降低系统熵的过程。提出了建立农业生产风险评价体系和风险预警模型系统,推进农业监测预警理论方法与关键技术研究,加快农业信息学科建设等加强农业风险预警的基本措施。Exploring relationships of agricultural information, risk prevention and early-warning analysis has theoretical and practical significance in reducing agricultural disaster losses, ensuring safety of agricultural products, encouraging the healthy development of agriculture. This paper dissected the basic connotation of agricultural risks, discussed the logical relationship among agricultural risks, monitoring, information, entropy and early-warning： the risks were necessary and sufficient condition of early-warning, while the early-warning effectively managed risks, searched for security; the monitoring was the basis of early-warning, while the early-warning was the stretch of monitoring; information got a inverse relationship with risks. The early-warning of agriculture security risks used information to add negentropy and decrease system entropy, which presented the establishment in the evaluation system of agricultural production risk and risk early-warning model system, promoted the theoretical approach and key technology reach in agricultural monitoring and early-warning, accelerated the development of some essential measures like agricultural information discipline that can strengthen the agricultural risk early-warning.

关 键 词：农业信息 农业风险 风险预警 农业安全 

分 类 号：F30[经济管理—产业经济]