河南省粮食消费结构变化及其对我国粮食安全的贡献率分析  

Grain Demand Structure Change in Henan and Its Contribution Rate to China's Food Security

作　　者：姚成胜[1] 黄琳[2] 吕晞[1] 

机构地区：[1]南昌大学经济与管理学院,江西南昌330031 [2]江西师范大学外国语学院,江西南昌330022

出　　处：《农业现代化研究》2014年第2期163-167,共5页Research of Agricultural Modernization

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"我国城市化进程中的粮食安全态势及其区域差异比较研究"(编号:12CJL064);教育部人文社会科学一般项目"中部地区城市化进程中的粮食安全水平测度及其对策研究"(编号:09YJC790136)

摘　　要：以河南省为研究区,分析了其在1991-2008年期间的粮食消费结构变化,在此基础上构建了河南省对我国粮食安全的贡献系数,并分析了其对我国粮食安全贡献程度的变化。研究结果表明:(1)研究期内河南省粮食消费总量平均增长速度为3.61%,高于同期粮食产量平均增长速度0.15%;其中口粮消费量保持相对稳定,并呈略微下降的趋势;(2)1991-2008年期间,河南省饲料粮和工业粮消费量保持持续快速增长的趋势,其年均增长速度分别达7.94%和12.06%,分别为粮食产量增长速度的2.20倍和3.34倍;2004年之后饲料粮消费量首次超过口粮消费量,成为粮食消费的最大主体;(3)畜牧业、水产养殖业和食品工业是河南省促进农民增收和提高区域经济发展水平的重要产业,今后一段时间河南省饲料粮和工业用粮必将保持持续增长的态势,这将对其粮食安全构成威胁;(4)研究期内,河南省对我国粮食安全的贡献系数经历了下降、波动、下降和快速上升四个发展阶段,其平均值为4.43%,表明18年来河南省不但维护了人口大省自身的粮食安全,而且还为维护国家粮食安全做出了显著贡献。Taking Henan Province as a study area, the grain consumption structures change from 1991 to 2008 has been analyzed, and then the contribution index to China＇ s food security （CICFS） of Henan Province has been constructed to analyze the contribution degree of Henan＇ s grain production to China＇ s food security changes. The results showed that： （1） during the study period, the average growth rate of grain consumption in Henan Province was 3.61% which is 0.15% higher than the growth rate of grain production. The grain ration kept relative steady and showed a slightly decreasing trend. （2） During 1991 to 2008, the feed grain and industrial grain kept increasing quickly, and their average growth rates are 7.94% and 12.06% separately, which are 2.20 times and 3.34 times as that of the grain production growth rate respectively. In the year of 2004, the consumption amount of feed grain exceeded the consumption amount of grain ration and became the largest part of grain consumption. （3） Animal husbandry, aquiculture and food industry were important industries in Henan Province for the government to improve the farmer＇s income and to increase the level of regional economic development, therefore the feed grain and the industrial grain consumption would still keep increasing in the near future, which would threaten Henan＇ s food security. （4） During the study period, the contribution rate of Henan Province to China＇ s food security experienced four stages which are the rapid decreasing stage, fluctuating stage, slowly decreasing stage and rapid increasing stage. The average mean value of CICFS of Henan Province was 4.43%, which meant that Henan Province not only maintained its own food security as a large population province, but also contributed a lot to China＇ s food security in the past 18 years.

关 键 词：粮食消费 结构变化 粮食安全 河南省 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]