基于区间直觉模糊集的水资源配置群决策研究  

RESEARCH ON THE WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION GROUP DECISION-MAKING BASED ON INTERVAL-VALUED INTUITIONISTIC FUZZY SET

作　　者：娄帅[1,2] 王慧敏[1,2] 牛文娟[1,2] 许叶军[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学管理科学研究所,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2014年第3期319-327,共9页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(12&ZD214);国家社会科学基金重点项目(10AJY005);国家社会科学基金项目(10CGL051);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2010CB951104);水利部公益性项目(201201091);2011江苏省研究生创新基金项目(CX-LX11_0463)

摘　　要：水资源问题是我国面临的重要资源与环境问题。流域水资源配置的有效性缺失也使水资源问题进一步恶化,而水资源配置过程中大量不确定信息也使高效决策问题更加困难。基于区间直觉模糊群决策的水资源配置方案优化方法,分析了水资源系统作为复杂系统的特殊性和区间直觉模糊理论在群决策中应用的优势,利用区间模糊数来表达专家判断信息,提高了流域水资源配置方案的合理性。通过多个水资源领域专家的群体决策,从流域水资源可持续利用评价视角出发,针对流域的社会、经济、资源、环境等多个因素进行判断,利用IIWAA算子进行群体意见集成,最后根据流域指标与理想点逼近点的距离对流域水资源配置方案排序。通过赣抚平原灌区内的用水区域在不同方案情景下的水资源可持续利用实例分析表明,该方法能够比较准确地评估出流域水资源配置方案的可持续性,为流域的水资源配置方案制定提供有效合理的决策支持。Nowadays water resource is relatively lacking in China, which becomes serious gradually. Ineffective allocation of water resources in river basins also aggravates the problems of water resources. And much uncertain information makes efficient decision more difficult for water resources allocation. The water resource allocation method of group decision-making based on interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy set was used to analyze the particularity of water recourse system as a complex system and the advantage of intuitionistic fuzzy theory application in group decision-making. The interval fuzzy numbers was used to express the reasonableness of the expert judgment information making. The reasonableness of the basin water resources allocation program was improved. Decisions from the perspective of basin water resources sustainable use evaluation by multiple group of experts in the field of water resources were made. The factors such as the social, economic, resource and environmental of the river basin were judged. Experts＇ opinion based on IIWAA operator was integrated. Relative proximity between the index of river basin and the ideal point was used as evaluation criteria of Water Resources Allocation Plan. Finally, Ganfu Plain Irrigation Area was used to validate the development approach and to demonstrate its feasibility and practicality.

关 键 词：水资源配置 水资源可持续利用 区间直觉模糊 群决策 赣抚平原灌区 

分 类 号：C931[经济管理—管理学]