中国啤酒厂商动态并购建模与仿真研究  

Modeling and Simulation Regarding Dynamic Mergers of China's Beer Industry

作　　者：后锐[1] 杨建梅[2] 姚灿中[3] 

机构地区：[1]广东工业大学管理学院,广州510520 [2]华南理工大学工商管理学院,广州510641 [3]华南理工大学经济与贸易学院,广州510006

出　　处：《管理评论》2014年第3期100-112,共13页Management Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71103044);广东省普通高校人文社会科学研究基地重大项目(10JDXM63005)

摘　　要：本文在构建中国啤酒产业竞争压力复杂网络基础上,结合动态竞争理论提出了竞争压力扩散驱动的厂商动态并购模型,分析了动态并购触发条件及其形成机理。接着,根据实证研究提取了中国啤酒产业动态并购参数、制定了仿真规则,以1992年实际产业竞争压力网络为初始网络,进行仿真验证,探讨了啤酒产业竞争压力网络拓扑结构对动态并购形成过程的影响。仿真结果表明,产业竞争压力网络拓扑结构指标对动态并购形成的规模、持续时间和稳定性具有重要影响。最后,针对仿真结果进行了讨论和解释,给出了厂商跨市场动态并购策略、政府产业竞争和并购政策的应用建议。Based on the competitive pressure complex network of China＇ s beer industry, this paper analyzes the forming mechanism and the trigger conditions of dynamic mergers, presents a dynamic merger model driven by industry competitive pressure diffusions combined with competitive dynamics theory. We extract the parameters on dynamic mergers in China＇ s beer industry and set up the simulation rules according to the empirical research results. By taking the actual industry competitive pressure network in 1992 as the initial network of simulation, four simulation processes are implemented and used to verify the accuracy and reliability of the model presented in this pa- per, and then we explore the effect of topological structure evolution of industry competitive pressure network on the formation process of dynamic mergers. The results show that, the topological structure index of industry competitive pressure network has significant influence on the scale of industry dynamic mergers, as well as the duration time and stability of industry dynamic mergers. Finally, we discuss and explain on these simulation results, and propose some suggestions on the cross-market merger decision-making for managers and on the industry competition and merger regulations for the governments.

关 键 词：动态并购 竞争压力扩散 中国啤酒产业 复杂网络 

分 类 号：F426.82[经济管理—产业经济] F271F224