基于IIPAT模型的我国低碳情景分析  

The Scenario Analysis of Low-Carbon Based on Improved IPAT Model in China

作　　者：王韶华[1] 于维洋[1] 张伟[2] 

机构地区：[1]燕山大学经济管理学院,河北秦皇岛066004 [2]东北大学秦皇岛分校经贸学院,河北秦皇岛066004

出　　处：《生态经济》2014年第4期19-23,共5页Ecological Economy

基　　金：高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金课题(20122304110018);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(13YJA630016);国家社会科学基金(11BJY020);中央高校基本业务费专项基金(HEUCF130907);国家自然科学基金(70773027);河北省科技厅课题(134576266)

摘　　要：引入能源结构优化系数和产业结构优化系数改进了传统的环境负荷模型,构建IIPAT模型,设定了三种情景分析我国未来低碳发展情况。其中,基准情景无法实现我国低碳经济发展目标,也不能完成2020年减排承诺,且能源消费量较大,产生的碳排放较多;政策情景是我国低碳经济发展比较现实、且能完成减排承诺的情景,但也不能实现碳强度降低50%的目标;强化低碳情景能够较理想的实现我国低碳经济发展目标,需要低碳技术创新得到突破。This paper considers optimization coefficient of energy structure and optimization coefficient of industry structure to build the improved IPAT model, then sets out three scenarios to analyze the development of low carbon in the future. Results indicate, Business as usual cannot achieve the goal of low-carbon economy or emission reduction commitment in 2020, with the huge energy consumption and carbon emission; Polocy Scenario can complete the emission reduction commitment, but cannot finish the goal, that the carbon intensity is cut by fifty percent; Enhance Carbon Scenario can realize the target of low- carbon economy successfully, which needs the breakthrough of low-carbon technology innovation.

关 键 词：改进环境负荷模型 情景 低碳 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学] F205