中国亚热带地区油茶温度适宜性及其变化趋势  

Temperature suitability of Camellia oleifera and its change trend in subtropical China

作　　者：代劲松[1] 曹林[1] 王婧琦[1] 汪贵斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学森林资源与环境学院,江苏南京210037

出　　处：《中南林业科技大学学报》2014年第2期20-25,共6页Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题(2012BAD21B04)

摘　　要：随着气候变化问题成为目前国际上关注的热点之一,植被对气候变化的响应也越来越受到专家学者的广泛关注。本研究以降尺度历史（1960～2009年）和未来（2010～2099年）,来源于全球环流模型MIROC3.2medres A2情景）高分辨率年均温数据为基础;首先,运用温度适宜度模型对亚热带地区1980～2009年、2010～2039年、2040～2069年和20 70～2099年时期油茶温度适宜性及其时空差异进行了计算,并将其划分为最适宜型、适宜型、次适宜型和不适宜型。适合油茶生长区域有着较为明显的向北偏移趋势,适宜型区域到2010～2039年时期已经到达亚热带的东北部边界,最适宜型区域到2040～2069年时期也到达了亚热带北部边界,与1980～2009年时期相比,未来三个时期的最适宜型和不适宜型面积均有所增加,而适宜型和次适宜型面积有所减小;其次,分析亚热带地区油茶温度适宜度时间变化,油茶温度适宜度随时间呈波动上升趋势;最后,分析油茶温度适宜度倾向率和变率的空间分布,亚热带东南部油茶温度适宜度下降最为明显,而东北部地区有着较高的增加趋势。The climate change has become one of the hot topics and an issue of international concern,the vegetal response to climate change has also caused more and more concerns and discussions by the scientists.This study was conducted based on the high-resolution annual average temperature data with the historical（during 1960~2009） and the projected（during 2010~2099.Firstly,simulated by Global Circulation Model MIROC 3.2 medres emission scenario A2） high-resolution spatial mean annual temperatures,which were obtained by using downscaling algorithm.Firstly,by using temperature suitability model,the temperature suitability and spatial and temporal differences of Camellia oleifera during the periods of 1980~2009,2010~2039,2040~2069 and 2070~2099 in the subtropical area of China were calculated.The subtropical area for C.oleifera temperature suitability could be divided into four types,high suitability,suitability,low suitability and no suitability.The all suitable regions gradually moved from the south to north,the suitability areas would arrive the boundary of northeast subtropics in the period of 2010~2039 and the high suitability areas would arrive the boundary of north subtropics in the period of 2040~2069.While comparing with the period of 1980~2009,in the three projected periods,the areas of high suitability and no suitability were increasing,the suitability and low suitability were decreasing.Secondly,according to the analyses of the time series of temperature suitability,the mean temperature suitability of C.oleifera over the subtropics had an increasing trend.Finally,the analyses of the trend rate and variability of temperature suitability indicated that the suitability of southeast subtropics declined obviously and the suitability of northeast had higher increasing trend.

关 键 词：油茶 温度适宜性 气候变化 全球环流模型 降尺度 

分 类 号：S794.4[农业科学—林木遗传育种]