突击潜艇对航母可生存性影响建模分析  

Modeling and Analysis on Survivability of Aircraft Carrier Attacked by Strike Submarine

作　　者：于凤全 周晓光 赵仁厚 张原 

机构地区：[1]海军航空兵学院空中领航与勤务系,辽宁葫芦岛125001 [2]海军航空兵学院模拟训练系,辽宁葫芦岛125001

出　　处：《兵工自动化》2014年第3期25-28,共4页Ordnance Industry Automation

基　　金：国家社科基金(军事学)课题"舰载机作战运筹分析"(12HJ2D6-×××)

摘　　要：针对航母与突击潜艇之间作战问题的复杂性,以及航母可生存性评估的重要性,提出一种基于概率统计的突击潜艇对航母可生存性影响评估方法。对航母与突击潜艇对抗作战流程进行描述,分析对抗过程中的关键事件,定义相关的描述变量;对航母可生存概率、航母受多次攻击的概率和突击潜艇毁伤数量期望等描述对抗效能的计算公式进行推导,并通过实例进行仿真分析。仿真结果表明,提升航母编队反潜力量的作战能力以及自身的防护能力是提升航母可生存性的关键。Aiming at the complex situation of battle between aircraft carrier and strike submarine and importance of aircraft carrier survivability evaluation, put forwards a survivability evaluation method of aircraft carrier attacked by strike submarine based on probability statistics. Firstly, describe the battle process between aircraft carrier and strike submarine, analyze key event in confrontation and define the relative description variable. Secondly, the mathematical derivations of the probability of survivability of carrier aircraft, probability of carrier aircraft suffered many times successful attacks, the expected number of submarines killed up is given. Finally a type example is given, computational results show that the anti-submarine capability of anti-submarine system and the defend capability of carrier aircraft is the key to promote the survivability of carrier aircraft.

关 键 词：潜艇 航母 可生存性 

分 类 号：TJ67[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程]