基于IOWA算子的组合预测模型在物流需求预测中的应用  

A Combined Model in Forecasting Logistics Demand Based on IOWA OperatorA Operator

作　　者：顾央青[1] 

机构地区：[1]宁波职业技术学院,浙江宁波315800

出　　处：《物流科技》2014年第3期72-74,共3页Logistics Sci-Tech

基　　金：宁波职业技术学院科研项目;项目编号:NZ13036ZF

摘　　要：根据2000～2009年宁波市物流需求的数据，采用灰色GM（1，1）模型和一元线性回归模型进行组合优化，建立了基于诱导有序加权平均（10WA）算子的物流需求量组合预测模型。结果表明基于IOWA算子的组合预测模型能有效提高预测精度，说明了该方法用于物流需求预测的可行性和有效性，并在此基础上对2010～2013年宁波市物流需求作出预测。According to tile logistics demamt data in Ningbo from year 2000 to 2009, we make use of GM（ 1,1 ） forecasting mod- el and unary linear fitted model model to construct optimal combination model based on Induced Ordered Weighted Averaging （IOWA） operator to forecast logistics demand. The results showed that the forecasting precision from testing of the combined model based on IOWA operator is obviously higher than two single-forecasting models, and proved the feasibility and effectiveness of combined model in the foreeasting of Ningbo＇s logistics demand. A future Ningbo＇s logistics demand from year 2010 to 2013 is forecasted on the basis of this research as well.

关 键 词：灰色预测 一元线性回归预测 IOWA算子 组合预测 

分 类 号：F253[经济管理—国民经济]