基于混合Logit模型的饶甬运输链选择行为分析  

Analysis of Rao Yong Transportation Chain Choice Based on Mixed Multinomial Logit Model

作　　者：张戎[1] 诸立超[1] 陶学宗[1] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海201804

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2014年第1期138-143,共6页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71271154)

摘　　要：以上饶和宁波之间公路和铁路两条集装箱运输链为研究对象,分析了铁路运输链时间和费用构成.然后选取准时性、运输链总时间、运输链总费用和安全性为效用函数特性变量建立了多项Logit模型和混合Logit模型.结果表明,时间和费用对运输方式选择起到了关键作用,并且铁路分担率对于费用的变化较为敏感.在不同假设场景下对公铁分担率进行了分析,对改善铁路服务水平所带来的分担率提升进行了定量计算.最后考虑到铁路时间和费用构成中存在的压缩空间,从运输链总时间、总费用和列车运行组织三方面提出了海铁联运发展对策.This paper takes road and railway container transportation chain between Shangrao and Ningbo as objectives,and analyzes cost and time composition of railway transportation chain.Then Multinomial Logit Model and Mixed Multinomial Logit Model are established by selecting punctuality,total transportation chain time,total transportation chain cost and safety as utility function variables.The results show that both time and cost play a key role in transportation mode selection process,and the share rate of railway is more sensitive to the change on cost.Share rate of road and railway are analyzed under different assumption scenarios,and share rate enhancement of railway for its service level improvement is calculated quantitatively.Finally,considering the compression space of time and cost,countermeasures are put forward to develop rail-sea intermodal transportation,including total transportation chain time,total transportation chain cost and train operation organization.

关 键 词：综合交通运输 影响因素 混合Logit模型 运输链 选择行为 

分 类 号：U169[交通运输工程]