基于系统动力学的空管安全风险情景预警决策模型仿真  

Pre-warning Decision-making Model Simulation of Air Traffic Control Safety Risk Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：罗帆[1] 刘小平[1] 杨智[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《系统工程》2014年第1期139-145,共7页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70971104)

摘　　要：针对空中交通管制安全风险预警决策呈现的复杂性和非程序性特点,在比较分析系统动力学在预警决策应用方面优势的基础之上,以流图为基础建立起管制安全风险的动力学预警仿真模型;在模型假设和变量边界确定的基础上,确立了管制指挥安全风险因果关系图和空管安全风险系统流图;使用Vensim软件对空管安全风险预测及预控策略优选过程进行模拟仿真,模拟结果验证了当前空中交通运输流量增长这一情景下的风险预警决策过程,有利于空管安全风险管理过程中提高预警效能。Based on the comparative analysis of the advantages of system dynamics in the application of pre-warning decision, this paper sets up a warning simulation model of controlling risk by using flow diagram, aiming at the complexity and non-procedural characteristics presented in risk pre-warning decision of air traffic control, and draws up the casual loop diagram of control safety risk and the SD flow diagram of air traffic control risk grounded on model assumption and the confirmation of variable boundary; then, simulates prediction of air traffic control safety risk and the process of pre-eontrol strategy optimization by using Vensim software. The results show that the risk pre-warning and decision-making process in the setting of traffic growth in current air traffic transportation is advantageous to improve pre-warning efficiency in the process of risk pre-warning management in air traffic control.

关 键 词：空中交通管制 安全风险 预警决策 系统动力学 预测仿真 

分 类 号：X923[环境科学与工程—安全科学]